Iran and Oman plan to charge ships to pass Hormuz, and Indonesia briefly floated a toll on Malacca, which carries about 29% of maritime oil flows. With the maritime courts unable to enforce their rulings, passage fees look like a cost that lasts for years.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence35
Coface's distance saving survives contact with the ice. The seasonal window, the hull premium, the Russian escort and the sailing schedule do not.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives55
- Confidence56
Sea Legend Line's new Northern Sea Route service halves Suez transit times, but the corridor carried 23 container ships last year and runs on Russian permits.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption21
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives63
- Confidence45
Sea Legend Shipping plans a scheduled Northern Sea Route container service from August 2026. The season's nominal capacity tops out near 39,000 TEU, which is small enough to ignore and cheap enough to quote against.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption14
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives68
- Confidence30
The Dubai Tower left Ningbo for Felixstowe as the first sailing of a weekly Northern Sea Route service. The constraints are ice, a thin base rate, and European carriers that pledged not to follow.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives58
- Confidence41