other
A NOAA branch that monitors and forecasts climate patterns like El Niño/La Niña, issuing seasonal outlooks and ENSO advisories for the US.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
Copernicus logged 21.10 C on Aug. 22, one hundredth of a degree above March 2024. The timing, not the margin, is what should move planning assumptions.
Perspective Coverage
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Science News reports the El Nino region's daily sea surface anomaly hit 3.08 C on September 21, past the 3.02 C mark set in November 2015. NOAA's preferred index still ranks the 1997-98 event stronger, leaving two analogues in play for the coming seasons.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
The eastern Pacific is running 2.1 C above average on weekly NOAA data, past the 2 C mark for a super event. The official strength category comes from three-month averages, and the regional outlook comes with a caveat attached.
Reality
The odds now favour a record season. The AI forecasting being pitched at the countries with the least margin is the least tested on exactly that kind of event.
Reality
Forecasters see this El Nino peaking well above the 2015 event and pushing 2027 to roughly 1.76C above preindustrial. That is a decade of trend warming delivered in one year.
Reality