Late-monsoon storms pushed Nepal's Gandak River to 11.94 meters at Devghat on September 27, its highest since gauging began in the 1960s. Embankments were overtopped and breached in several places as water spread over farmland and towns for hundreds of kilometers.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives20
- Confidence65
NASA Earth Observatory puts the 2026 Indonesian fire season at roughly a tenth of 2015's 1.75 billion tons of greenhouse gas equivalents after about a month, with the underground smoldering fires the hardest for satellites to count.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives45
- Confidence66
Peat gives off roughly three times the fine particulate matter of other tropical forest fires, so most of this season's health cost is decided by how much soil is already dry and when the rains return.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+6
- Incentives42
- Confidence63
NASA FIRMS counts show a sharp August spike across five provinces. A published study puts El Nino's megafire effect at roughly 2.7x, and severe fires still happen without it.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence52
NASA says the utility feeds VIIRS snow-cover and vegetation products into machine-learning river forecasts that shape releases at Mayfield and Mossyrock. The 2026 water year tested both directions.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption63
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives72
- Confidence56