Lidl held 8.6% of the UK grocery market in the 12 weeks to October, up from 8.2% a year ago, Worldpanel by Numerator figures show. Aldi, the larger German discounter, slipped from 10.6% to 10.5% over the same period, so the gain is Lidl's alone.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption54
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives40
- Confidence66
Sainsbury's, the UK's second-largest grocer, held merger talks with sixth-placed Morrisons from November to February before walking away. A competition ruling on Aldi and Lidl due this month will shape how many stores a revived deal would cost.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives65
- Confidence50
Sainsbury's held exploratory talks this year on a Morrisons merger that would have created a grocer with 23.6% of the UK market, the FT and Sky reported. Any revival would turn on whether the competition regulator accepted store sales as the price of approval.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
Tesco is weighing a sale of its Hungarian, Czech and Slovak arm, £4.5bn of its £66.6bn revenue last year, with Lidl among the interested parties. A sale would end its overseas expansion and free money and attention for a UK market where its share has recently slipped.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence40
Lidl GB spent £315m on price cuts and promotions against pre-tax profit of £245.5m as its market share climbed past Morrisons. Deluxe grew only a little faster than the business as a whole, so Lidl's clearer edge over a slowing Aldi is its loyalty scheme.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption65
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
Germany's Federal Motor Transport Authority has cleared an Einride truck with no cab and no safety operator to haul groceries between two Lidl sites on a public road. Einride shares traded at $3.79, about 11% of their 52-week high.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives74
- Confidence47
German firms' own attribution of attacks to state services has moved from 7% to nearly 40% in two years. That puts nation-state tradecraft on the risk register of any mid-sized manufacturer with a supplier list.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives68
- Confidence55