Taiwan has received the first two of 66 F-16 Block 70 jets it ordered from the US in 2019 for $7.76 billion, after a six-week stop in Hawaii. The other 64 are due by the end of 2026, on a schedule that has already slipped.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 30%
- Operator
- Operator 42%
- Investor
- Investor 28%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives50
- Confidence65
The 15% tariff Taipei bought with $250bn of promised fab investment is a rate that gets re-quoted whenever Washington asks again, which makes the tariff line in a hardware bill of materials a political variable.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives75
- Confidence50
The Han Kuang exercise closed with mines and barricades at a city crossroads, not on a beach. Anyone modelling Taiwan risk as a blockade should note whose assumptions changed.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption72
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives58
- Confidence66
Economy minister Kung Ming-hsin put a $20 billion figure on Taiwanese investment in America and declined to say whose money it is, which is worth pricing against the $265 billion one company has already promised Arizona.
Reality
- Evidence26
- Adoption14
- Hype gap+44
- Incentives83
- Confidence33
The defence ministry would not say what it was testing, so the ground it chose becomes the record: an airport approach road, a subway ride to a fallback headquarters, and what that implies about the fight Taipei expects to have.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption64
- Hype gap−8
- Incentives58
- Confidence55
A chip and AI export boom has reached the budget: a universal NT$10,000 payment, a record defence bill, and an opposition asking why last year's unconstitutional idea is now policy.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives74
- Confidence40
A KMT-backed NT$236bn cash handout has cleared first reading over Executive Yuan objections. The AI boom is now a domestic political variable, and it prices differently from a chip cycle.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives66
- Confidence28