Republicans hold $1 billion to Democrats' $579 million, but Trump-aligned groups booking in September sometimes pay over five times earlier rates. At those prices the cash lead buys less airtime than its size suggests, though the record cannot say how much less nationally.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 6%
- Operator
- Operator 59%
- Investor
- Investor 35%
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives45
- Confidence60
Senate candidates in Alaska and Michigan are pitching diesel export curbs and gas tax holidays to an electorate where 47% rank cost of living first. The oil and electricity costs behind those pledges look set to outlast November, whoever wins.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Donald Trump opens a 32-day midterm campaign in Texas and Oklahoma as AP-NORC puts approval of his handling of the economy at a record-low 26%. He is spending his first days on ground his party once held easily, so investors should treat a change in control of Congress on Nov. 3 as a live outcome.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives75
- Confidence60
Guidance issued in January told broadcasters that late-night and daytime talk shows are not necessarily exempt from equal time, and since then two networks have kept the same Senate candidate off air.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives65
- Confidence65
More than $3.4 billion is chasing a chamber that decides who staffs the administration and who fills open court seats for the rest of the term, and the spending so far shows the two sides pricing the same seats very differently.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives68
- Confidence55
Flock says its license plate readers operate in 6,000 communities in every state but Alaska, and candidates in both parties are now pledging bans, funding pauses and warrant rules, which turns a signed municipal contract into an election-year liability.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives82
- Confidence48
Ken Paxton and James Talarico disagree about tax breaks and local control, but they ask for the same thing on water. That moves cooling design out of the campaign column and into the siting spec.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption36
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives79
- Confidence44
Paxton's four-point plan and Talarico's veto-and-water platform share no instrument, only a direction. The escape route both leave open is the off-grid power plant.
Reality
- Evidence33
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives78
- Confidence34