Remote cameras filmed Gabon's cave-dwelling dwarf crocodiles ambushing bats, a hunt ecologist Matt Shirley had not seen in about 15 years of studying them. Shot for a TV series, the footage is a first sighting that has yet to be turned into counts of strikes and catches.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
Two herpetologists argue in Zootaxa that Britain's smooth snake is venomous, leaving none of the country's three native snakes without venom. The endangered heathland snake is still harmless to people, so the change settles a point of anatomy and hands its conservationists an awkward label.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
The endangered listing rests on a model of what happens to wild-nesting colonies if beekeepers' swarms stop arriving. Its authors put the loss at about 56% over ten years, while some English populations hold steady.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption46
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives55
- Confidence52
The archive that pushed Smyley Island's founding back to at least 1989 also shows the colony re-forming beside grounded icebergs after a probable total failure in 2022. That re-forming pattern is awkward for projections that hold breeding sites still.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption48
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives34
- Confidence52
A Science Advances study of 210 tropical forest mammals finds that traits driving losses over 130,000 years now track with survival. Trait-based analogy is a shakier proxy than it looks.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives52
- Confidence46