Contiguous U.S. temperatures averaged 57.98 degrees F from January to August 2026, the hottest such stretch since records began in 1895, NOAA data show. Only a cooler-than-normal fall would keep 2026 from an annual record, Zeke Hausfather says.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence68
Carbon Impacts Tracer, a new open-source tool, links Woodside's Browse gas project to an extra week of dangerous heat a year for almost 200,000 people. The figure puts a count on harm that project backers have long called too small to trace to any one project.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence40
UNEP now accepts the overshoot and describes a way back to 1.5C by 2100 that needs global emissions halved by 2035 and then removal running at a scale one outside researcher puts at 100,000 times today's.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 28%
- Operator
- Operator 53%
- Investor
- Investor 19%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption6
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives50
- Confidence60
A paper in Environmental Research Letters estimates that permafrost, wildfire, wetland and inland-water emissions amplify human-caused warming by 20 to 30 percent, though at one standard deviation the low-emissions case still runs from zero to 0.4 C.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence60
A Yale-led team writing in Nature argues that crushed limestone spread on farmland across 41 percent of the contiguous United States removes more CO2 than it releases, because the acid it neutralises would have released CO2 anyway.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives65
- Confidence50
The co-leads of July's Geneva dialogue want models tested independently before release and incidents reported after it. Their list of things due by May is an evidence assessment, an agenda item and one cross-border sandbox pilot.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives68
- Confidence52
Six years of data from the Bangladesh Agricultural University Dairy Farm put milk at 5.18 kilograms of carbon per kilogram, with the cows' own digestion accounting for 48% of everything counted inside the farm gate.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives50
- Confidence55
Melbourne and ANU researchers mapped inundation onto property registers under a mid-range warming scenario, then held storm intensity constant and left erosion out, which is why $855 billion is a floor.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption22
- Hype gap−12
- Incentives58
- Confidence55
A prototype taxonomy published in Nature Climate Change links measurable climate drivers to specific risks and adaptation options. Its own numbers show most of the work happens at regional scale.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence46
A new grading method scores models on satellite radiation trends rather than past surface temperatures, and the ones previously discounted come out on top.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence42
Cores off northeastern Brazil date two intensifications of Atlantic overturning during a period when the circulation was mostly far weaker than today. One lasted about a century.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives42
- Confidence57