Fifty-two percent of Gen Z investors moved money meant for investing into sports betting in the past year, a Betterment survey of 1,000 investors found. Bank of America's payment data puts what every generation recovers from sportsbooks each month below 75 cents on the dollar, so the diverted cash is a running cost.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
ADP counted 90,000 new private-sector jobs in September, ending a three-month slowdown. Health care and the skilled trades carried the month, and the trades are hiring into a labor shortage that Fed and ADP economists explain differently.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence64
Fed Governor Lisa Cook says about $2 trillion in announced AI investment is pushing up input costs such as electricity before it delivers productivity gains. Her doubt that the Fed can still look through supply shocks links data-center spending to rates in 2027.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
New York Fed President John Williams lists AI demand for chips and power equipment among the forces behind inflation he forecasts at 3.5% for 2026. He also said the productivity payoff that would argue for easier policy has yet to show up in the data.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence40
Hedge funds in the Treasury basis trade borrowed $3.0 trillion in repo as of July 2025, New York Fed data show, roughly what money market funds lend. Dealers stand between the two, so a pullback in money-fund cash would reach the basis traders through dealer balance sheets.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
New York Fed President John Williams called one more rate hike this year reasonable, citing AI investment demand and energy prices with inflation at 3.4%. Sixteen of 18 Fed officials project at least one more move, so borrowers should plan on a policy range of 4% to 4.25% or higher by year-end.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence75
At the New York Fed's annual Treasury market conference, the vice chair tied three years of operational fixes to the market that prices every other asset, while calling the collateral handoff with the Federal Home Loan Banks unfinished work.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives70
- Confidence62
Hedge funds now hold nearly 7% of the Treasury market and the New York Fed is examining their relative-value strategies. Roughly $830 billion of that book is basis trades financed at up to 50 times equity.
Reality
- Evidence20
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives55
- Confidence28
A Kellogg study of 50 million job ads finds remote roles want 25% more skills at the same title and employer, while the New York Fed attributes 64% of the rise in young-graduate unemployment to working from home.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
Fed, Equifax and Fitch data for Q2 show delinquency falling across prime and subprime. The 90-plus rate that argued the opposite was stale charge-offs, according to the New York Fed.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption71
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence64
A generation with 20% of the population owns more than half of US household wealth, but the top decile holds 71% of it and the average boomer carries $92,619 in debt.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption64
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives68
- Confidence48
Net migration collapsed, foreign-born unemployment fell below native-born in October 2025, and the headline rate held. Those three facts fit together in a way employers should read carefully.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives65
- Confidence55