ESA's Juice spacecraft gained 3.5 km/s and turned 20 degrees passing Earth on 28 September, using one of six reserved course-correction slots to line up. Its operations team says the propellant it did not burn will go to observing Jupiter's icy moons.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
NASA's Crew-12, four astronauts from NASA, ESA and Roscosmos, is due back from the space station in early October. The agency's look back sets out what the crew's experiments in drug crystallisation, bone repair and quantum physics were built to test.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives65
- Confidence60
Australia's Darwin ash-advisory centre used ESA's EarthCARE lidar to confirm that Anak Krakatau's westward plume sat near 15 km, as forecast. That check brought a satellite built to study clouds and Earth's energy balance into aviation advice in near-real time.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Hubble imaging and Gaia orbits separate a third population of ancient star clusters in the galaxy's inner regions, evidence of a dwarf galaxy swallowed about 11.8 billion years ago.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 60%
- Operator
- Operator 30%
- Investor
- Investor 10%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
Saturn's northern hexagon has looked the same for more than 40 years, so a second polygon that only shows up in images from 2023 onward hands atmospheric modellers a formation they can watch happen rather than a finished structure to explain.
Perspective Coverage
10 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 39%
- Operator
- Operator 39%
- Investor
- Investor 22%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives30
- Confidence72
BepiColombo's transfer module let go on schedule, and the spacecraft ran the step without help from the ground. The two manoeuvres that decide whether the mission returns any Mercury data are still 79 and 97 days out.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 33%
- Operator
- Operator 57%
- Investor
- Investor 10%
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives40
- Confidence74
The new altimeter has been sending low-latency measurements since July 15, but NOAA's operational ocean heat suite is only targeted to start using its ocean height data by the end of the year, so this El Nino is being forecast on the record that already existed.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives65
- Confidence60
Frank Postberg's team finds that Enceladus plume droplets freeze slowly, sorting salts and organics into separate grains a few micrometers across. A probe would need to check many grains to find one holding microbial material, though that grain should be easy to read.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives35
- Confidence55
NASA and ESA will coordinate blood draws from Crew-13 astronauts in a joint clotting study, one of six human studies on the mission. The study asks why weightlessness disturbs venous blood flow in some astronauts but not others, and answering that depends on how many crew take part.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives35
- Confidence65
NASA's Artifact InSPECtor asks the public to mark cosmic-ray hits, stray glints and electronics quirks in Euclid's spectrograph data, and those classifications will be used to sharpen the software built to remove them.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
The €50M extension carries HyImpulse past €125M of equity and public money, but the agency's willingness to own one of four European contenders reads louder than the cheque, in a year when Europe flew under 10 orbital launches.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives74
- Confidence45
A German team calibrated infrared spectra against lab-made glass beads, tested the method on the Moon where returned samples exist, and came back with a crustal silica fraction about a quarter below the accepted one.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives55
- Confidence50
The first paper built on ESA Hera's Deimos flyby argues a single roughly 320-metre impactor did both jobs, and that the moon is porous and fragile. JAXA's MMX inherits that finding.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
About a hundred SPH runs at the University of Bern converge on a single non-destructive strike as the source of Deimos's south-polar depression and its global regolith. The surface is ejecta, and it is weak.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives58
- Confidence55
JAXA showed the MMX spacecraft to reporters ahead of a launch it will only place in "the coming months". China's Tianwen-3 is aiming to bring Mars material back around 2031, possibly sooner.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption26
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives63
- Confidence48