El Niño kept the Atlantic free of hurricanes through September for the first time in reliable records by holding wind shear high over warm water. The mark could still fall if the National Hurricane Center upgrades Tropical Storm Fay in its post-season review.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
University of Utah scientists used 25 ice cores to show that El Nino and the Madden-Julian Oscillation steer yearly snowfall on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The finding makes the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans part of estimating how much snow the sheet gains each year.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives30
- Confidence55
A Harvard and University of Ghana team detrended two decades of district production records and found that heavy April-June rain matters about as much as dry-season drought, with both extremes tied to large-scale climate patterns.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives52
- Confidence58
Researchers led from Sydney and Imperial simulated pastoral households across seven southern African countries and report that better seasonal information helped the poorest herders only when something also paid for the response.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence48
King's College London researchers counted deaths from every recorded tropical cyclone and extreme heat event since 2000. The toll sits in a handful of outliers, and they argue the scenarios used in risk assessment are not built to find events without precedent.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
A UNESP-led team read 207 daily rain samples collected in Manaus between March 2023 and February 2025 and found two Atlantic systems taking turns at setting the isotope ratio. The early-warning use is still untested.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence50
By September 3 the Northeast Pacific had 15 named storms and six hurricanes against the Atlantic's five and none, the split forecasters called back in spring. A basin tally, though, says nothing about where the rain lands.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives38
- Confidence62
The canal's water manager reports April-to-August rain running 35.8% below the historical average with no near-term recovery, so schedulers have to treat a lock system whose throughput is set by lake level as a variable into mid-2027.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
NASA FIRMS counts show a sharp August spike across five provinces. A published study puts El Nino's megafire effect at roughly 2.7x, and severe fires still happen without it.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence52
The forecast signal is stronger than anything in the record since 1950. The observation underneath it is 1.4C, and that gap is the part worth watching.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives44
- Confidence47
The Met Office expects the tropical Pacific above 3C in November, and one aggregated forecast says 3.9C. The global temperature consequence lands in 2027, which is still a planning cycle away.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives42
- Confidence61
Mead and Powell set multiple record lows this month, and the reliable wet signal lands where the water is used rather than where the snowpack that refills them piles up.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−8
- Incentives38
- Confidence55
The Panama Canal Authority cuts daily transits from 36 to 34 on Sept. 3 and to 32 on Sept. 15 after a 34% rainfall shortfall. Booked ships keep their slots; everyone else queues or bids.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives62
- Confidence54
NOAA raised its below-normal odds for the 2026 Atlantic season by 20 points in August. The figure describes an ocean basin, and it says nothing about where a storm makes landfall.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption22
- Hype gap−12
- Incentives32
- Confidence54
A record-strength El Nino has moved from forecast to administrative emergency in the Central American Dry Corridor. The government says the crisis runs to March or April.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives62
- Confidence41
Forecasters expect fewer than 10 named storms this Atlantic season, but roughly nine-tenths of an average season's storm energy normally arrives after mid-August.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50