Researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences report an early sub-3nm transistor route built on lithography tools China can still import. Whether export controls cap advanced nodes or only slow them turns on wafer-level results still to come.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence38
Intel closed at $104.47, roughly 92 times the $1.14 it is expected to earn this year. Of the three legs holding that price up, only the data centre line is already in the accounts. October's CPU increase is still a supply chain report.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives68
- Confidence55
The samples are real and so is the physics, but SKC's Absolics panels are still being reliability-tested in Taiwan, and Intel, which promised glass in 2023, now points its own deployment at around 2030.
Reality
- Evidence63
- Adoption14
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives72
- Confidence58
Taiwan and South Korea are splitting the AI server chain because demand exceeds what either can build. For 2026 supply forecasts, the binding step is the handoff, not any single fab.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives55
- Confidence38
TrendForce now expects domestic silicon to take about 90% of China's AI accelerator market in 2026, up from 45%. The arithmetic says the constraint is fab and packaging output, not Washington.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption48
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives62
- Confidence40