Judge Melissa Damian sentenced former Rep. David Rivera to 10 years for hiding a $50 million lobbying contract from a US affiliate of Venezuela's PDVSA. The term shows what concealment costs consultants paid by foreign governments when a case runs its course, and it comes as such prosecutions have plunged.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives55
- Confidence65
Treasury has extended Citgo's protection from a court-ordered $9 billion sale to Elliott Management six times since January. Creditors holding that order are waiting on an administration that keeps its leverage over Caracas for as long as it leaves the license undecided.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence50
The National Assembly named Steve Hanke special adviser and told him to write a full dollarization law. He puts the odds of passage at 50% to 80%.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives65
- Confidence40
The August 28 concession hands 17 fields and an estimated 65 billion barrels of reserves to NABEP, whose current output is about 200,000 barrels a day against a target of roughly 500,000 by the end of 2028.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives68
- Confidence30
The memorandum signed at Miraflores Palace on September 19 follows deals BP, Eni, Repsol and Chevron struck with the new government this year. Venezuela still pumps under a million barrels a day against about three million in the late 1990s.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence33
Caracas puts the bill above $100 billion for reserves the White House says more than double America's, a stock claim with no schedule attached while the only new barrels come from Chevron tuning old wells.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 12%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 50%
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+71
- Incentives82
- Confidence63
Washington's cut of the new Venezuelan oil venture arrives without Washington writing a cheque. The arithmetic leaves private capital about 52 cents of every dollar of market-priced output, before anyone establishes who owned the fields.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption21
- Hype gap+44
- Incentives84
- Confidence37
Brent at $92 reads as a supply story, but the harder move is a 30-year Treasury at 5.278%, and what sits between them is a peace deal Washington keeps declining and 65 billion Venezuelan barrels it wants to own.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
CME's September odds moved by 18.6 points on a Jackson Hole speech that deliberately gave no guidance, which makes the hike a price rather than a forecast, and prices assembled that fast can come apart on Friday's payrolls.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence40
Alejandro Betancourt is helping the Trump administration pick assets and partners in Caracas. With no competitive bidding and majors staying out, the beneficiaries are small US operators.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+55
- Incentives80
- Confidence45