Ten-year Treasury yields reached 5.27%, the highest since June 2007, with real yields supplying 66 of the five-year's 72bp monthly rise. The bond market is pricing a strong economy, while Goldman Sachs finds the median S&P 500 stock already 16% below its 52-week high.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives45
- Confidence50
Goldman Sachs says half of S&P 500 members sit 16% or more below their 52-week highs while the index is about 1% off its record. The gap points to a few heavily weighted AI stocks carrying the index as Treasury and European bond yields keep climbing.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Contrarian Thinking's founder says gossip earns a warning and then a firing. The case she describes in her new book began with an employee telling coworkers, every week, that the company worked them too hard.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives75
- Confidence62
The Bridgewater founder said in a video for the World Economic Forum that over-investment in world-changing technology creates debt and then a bubble and then a bust. Fortune puts the dotcom version at a 77% Nasdaq fall.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Bridgewater's co-CIO wants companies above a fixed share of AI compute supervised the way regulators supervise too-big-to-fail banks, with capital requirements and stress tests. The two labs he names are private.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives65
- Confidence42
US debt crossed $40 trillion and the interest bill now tops Medicare. The buyback that helped move gold and bitcoin was $4 billion, or one hundredth of one percent of the stock.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives74
- Confidence45
Ray Dalio told investors to cut bonds and hold gold plus a bit of Bitcoin, days after US debt hit $40.047 trillion. The 23% rally that followed is a sovereign-credit trade, not a beta trade.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives68
- Confidence32
Four years into an AI-led bull run, the work being done in client portfolios is cash matching against dated obligations. Dalio's wealth-versus-money line is the operational part.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives62
- Confidence45
A new scenario model puts household numbers on the fiscal path: $53,000 in extra lifetime mortgage payments for a 2031 buyer, and a $705 monthly hole for retirees by 2033.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives62
- Confidence46