Anthropic's research institute, led by cofounder Jack Clark, publishing essays and economic models on AI's societal impact, jobs and growth.
Anthropic says Claude led about 26% of its R&D in August and wrote more than 80% of the code merged into its codebase, and a thin prediction market gives its next Opus an 83% chance of shipping by September 24.
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JoyIn, a 20-person robotics team in Suzhou with Ant Group backing, says OpenAI distilled its research framing and copied its launch page. The startup is going to court over the two assets any rival could rebuild.
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Anthropic published three scenarios and an interactive model, declined to say which is likelier, and left aggregate demand out of the arithmetic. The same newsletter carrying the research reports business AI spending is falling.
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Anthropic published three scenarios for AI's effect on the US economy without probabilities. The middle one, where AI does half of knowledge work by 2030 while knowledge-worker pay stalls, is the branch a capex plan can actually use.
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The Anthropic Institute's three scenarios for 2030 run from half a point of extra GDP growth to 15% a year. The interactive model behind them makes you supply the missing variable, which is how much of what AI can do actually gets used.
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Its three branches span an extra half point of growth up to 15 percent a year, and which one you land in depends mostly on adoption and displacement figures the tool asks you to supply. Some 11,000 surveyed Americans land in the middle.
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Gates says technology executives are privately worried about AI's labor effects and are telling each other to stay quiet to protect fundraising, which leaves the people who must staff 2027 planning without a policy timetable.
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