Litigation and a vote 10 months away threaten Dangote's $16 billion Kenyan refinery, due in 2030, Semafor reported. The government has declined to publish key agreements, so outsiders cannot see who carries the cost of a delay.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives75
- Confidence50
Africa's biggest listing values Aliko Dangote's refinery at about $50 billion and promises to pay its dividends in US dollars, with the proceeds committed to making the plant the largest in the world by 2029.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives75
- Confidence55
Aliko Dangote broke ground on a $16 billion, 700,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Lamu, Kenya, with five heads of state at the ceremony. The plant will run on neighbors' crude, and Uganda's president says his country will still build its own refinery.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 23%
- Operator
- Operator 40%
- Investor
- Investor 37%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
Uganda is pledging its crude to Hoima and a $20 billion complex in Tanzania, so Dangote's planned refinery at Lamu in Kenya will likely import by sea. Lenders and IPO buyers are now pricing a plant fed by tanker crude through a port with no working oil storage.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
About 300 investment executives managing more than $120 trillion came to a Toronto hotel to hear Canada's pitch on minerals, energy and trade access. Ottawa's new offer this week was faster tax rulings for investments above $1 billion.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 28%
- Operator
- Operator 27%
- Investor
- Investor 45%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption33
- Hype gap+27
- Incentives72
- Confidence60