Kilauea has produced 54 separate lava fountains since December 2024, some reaching 457 meters, researchers report in Science. Instrument records from the run suggest trapped gas drives the bursts by pumping magma through narrow vents like a piston.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
Berkeley and Padua researchers dated eight Vesuvius sanidine samples to 1,938 years, give or take 13, against the 1,946 years that Pliny's account implies. The same historical date helped make potassium-40's half-life, the constant under every argon-argon age, twice as precise.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives35
- Confidence55
Crystals in lava from La Palma's 1712, 1971 and 2021 eruptions show hot mantle magma stirring a mush 18 to 25 km down days or weeks before each one. The authors say that record helps read future unrest at depths monitoring networks struggle to see, though it cannot date the next eruption.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives35
- Confidence50
Berkeley and Padua geochronologists dated eight crystals from Vesuvius to 1,938 years, plus or minus 13, against a recorded age of 1,946 years. The same eruption date let them measure potassium-40's decay twice as precisely. Carbon-14 and uranium-lead results can now be checked against that constant.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
The crystals came from boreholes drilled 80 years ago and 65 kilometres apart, and their ages match a thick Baltic ash bed, which pins when this eruption happened far better than it pins how large it was.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives34
- Confidence58
A team led by Janine Krippner and Sam Poppe has catalogued 18 common misconceptions in the Journal of Applied Volcanology. The public summary works through only three of them in detail.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives34
- Confidence52