Jamie Dimon has said he could reconsider JPMorgan's Canary Wharf tower if the UK turns hostile to banks, an investment projected to add up to £10bn. The £10bn is a six-year estimate of local impact; the tower itself is put at £3bn.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives55
- Confidence50
John Healey is poised to raise bank taxes in his 28 October budget, the Guardian understands, with one option worth upwards of £2bn a year. The proceeds would help cover higher borrowing costs from the Middle East war, and the banks have already warned in writing that they could move staff and business abroad.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 35%
- Investor
- Investor 57%
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
City AM reported that bank bosses and industry leaders will run scenario analysis on a Budget bank tax, a day after Healey praised banks at the IMF. The sources show firms modelling a range of outcomes, with no Treasury confirmation of any plan.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
Wall Street's six largest banks booked a combined $22bn in third-quarter equity trading revenue, City AM reported. Goldman Sachs led with a 72% rise to $6.4bn on volatility and hedge-fund borrowing, and its chief executive says the peak is hard to call.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
The TUC says cutting the bank surcharge from 8% to 3% in 2023 cost the UK £6bn over three years. It wants a higher rate at the 28 October budget, so bank finance teams have a scenario to price while the Treasury has not stated its intentions.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives75
- Confidence40
Bosses of Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds and three other lenders make their tax case to John Healey on Tuesday, just over four weeks before his first Budget. Signals from his Treasury leave lenders that wanted the 3% surcharge phased out defending against a rise.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence50