An eruption and a cross-border haze episode hit Indonesia in the same week. The aviation disruption came with counts. The health figures quoted for Sarawak and Manila arrive as associations.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence40
Sarawak's emergency turns on a single pollution index crossing a policy threshold, a number that describes the air at a sensor rather than the dose a district has breathed, and neither AFP dispatch carries a comparable reading for Singapore or Brunei.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption78
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives57
- Confidence66
CAMS is comparing this season to 2015 and 2019, both exceptional El Nino years. For anyone planning around regional haze, the more durable input is the drained peatland that turns a dry spell into weeks of smoke downwind.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives32
- Confidence60
NASA FIRMS counts show a sharp August spike across five provinces. A published study puts El Nino's megafire effect at roughly 2.7x, and severe fires still happen without it.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence52
Jakarta has dozens of aircraft on standby to seed clouds over Borneo. Its own burned-area figure is roughly a third of what independent monitoring reports.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption66
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives72
- Confidence51