More than 150 academics, business leaders and food groups have told Andy Burnham's government that Britain has no plan to feed people in a crisis. The official measures so far target household cupboards, so buffer stock along the supply chain stays each food business's own cost.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap
- Insufficient
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Saudi Arabia has taken one of this year's main Hormuz workarounds out of service. The case for paying to keep spare routes and switchable inputs on hand now gets tested with one option fewer in the stack.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives70
- Confidence40
The doomsday scenarios never arrived, and because nothing broke, Asia's importers are funding new routes and new suppliers out of capital budgets rather than waiting out a spike they could have hedged. Halving Hormuz still has an if attached.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives58
- Confidence45
KIET's president says holding No. 2 in batteries, shipbuilding and renewables carries security value. CSIS says market access now turns on alliances. Both rewrite the test a Korean plant has to pass.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives66
- Confidence44
A study of six crop groups covering roughly half of internationally traded calories finds economic inequality the strongest constraint on food accessibility, ahead of production shocks.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives44
- Confidence46
The ECB president told business leaders in Geneva that all three pillars of European growth are weakening at once. That makes the reset a planning assumption, not a cycle.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives66
- Confidence55
Sea Legend Line's new Northern Sea Route service halves Suez transit times, but the corridor carried 23 container ships last year and runs on Russian permits.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption21
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives63
- Confidence45