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Space Weather

Solar flares, coronal mass ejections and geomagnetic storms, and how their effects reach ground systems.

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scienceOne report1 publisher

SwRI team puts a probability on each far-side active region before it enters a solar model

SwRI-led researchers built a probabilistic framework that scores far-side solar active regions, using whole-Sun maps from 2010 to 2014. Helioseismic far-side detections sometimes prove to be ghosts, and the scoring is meant to keep them out of the models behind space-weather forecasts.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence45
scienceOne report1 publisher

Solar-wind magnetic fields preferentially rotate one way at large scales and the other at small ones

TU Braunschweig and University of Tokyo researchers report the first demonstration of reversed magnetic-field rotation in solar-wind turbulence. The flip sits where the plasma changes from fluid-like to particle-like behavior, according to the team.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence50
scienceOne report1 publisher

Oulu simulations place the strongest waves at Earth's magnetic edge in the winter hemisphere

University of Oulu models show the strongest Kelvin-Helmholtz waves at Earth's magnetic edge form in the winter hemisphere. So far the evidence comes from simulation.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

Solar Orbiter traces a magnetic switchback to hot loops on the Sun's surface

Solar Orbiter flew through a large magnetic switchback and used the particles inside it to trace the kink to a source on the Sun's surface. The result comes from a single crossing, so it limits how switchbacks can begin but cannot yet say how most of them do.

Publishers:esa.int phys.org

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives65
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

Smile's ultraviolet camera passes its first test with a daylight aurora over the North Pole

Smile, a European-Chinese mission, began science operations after its ultraviolet camera caught a daylight aurora over the North Pole. The July frames show the hardware works, and findings on solar particles and Earth's magnetic field still await more data and a recalibrated X-ray imager.

Publishers:livescience.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

Microsoft Research pipeline forecasts geomagnetic storm risk for 66,935 U.S. substations

Microsoft Research's machine-learning pipeline turns solar-wind forecasts into risk estimates for 66,935 U.S. substations, 30 to 60 minutes ahead. Its scores come from forecasts of fast magnetic-field change, so acting on a warning at a particular substation still needs a field test.

Publishers:microsoft.com

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives55
Confidence40
scienceOne report1 publisher

Smile begins science operations before its X-ray camera can image the magnetopause

ESA cleared the joint European-Chinese Smile mission for science on 23 September, after 95 days of commissioning in orbit. Its aurora camera is recording now, while the X-ray imager meant to map the magnetopause waits for stray light to fade in mid-October.

Publishers:esa.int

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives60
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

A new study reads Cycle 26's strength from the moment Cycle 25's sunspots switch off

Sandra Chapman reports in The Astrophysical Journal that solar maxima end in a sharp sunspot cutoff whose count predicts the next cycle, and her own forecast for Cycle 26 follows the drop she expects in 2028.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence50
scienceOne report1 publisher

Kyushu's colliding laser plasmas reconnected at similar rates under very different inflows

A Kyushu University team moved two laser spots on a carbon target to change the density and magnetic field feeding a reconnection layer. Once a current sheet had formed, the measured rates came out close anyway.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+16
Incentives62
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

Lancaster-led reanalysis redates the Exeter telegraph delay to October 1848

The railway line in the story did not open until 1846, so a team led by Lancaster University went back to timetables, newspapers and magnetic records and moved the 16-minute delay to 18 October 1848.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+22
Incentives55
Confidence62
scienceOne report1 publisher

Radiation belt simulations matched the May 2024 dropout only when compression and outflow coincided

Xingzhi Lyu and colleagues have reconstructed how the outer Van Allen belt lost its most energetic electrons during the strongest geomagnetic storm since 2003, and the reconstruction worked only under a tight timing assumption.

Publishers:eos.org phys.org

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+12
Incentives50
Confidence58
scienceOne report1 publisher

NASA's Swift observatory will burn up by December after nearly 2,000 gamma-ray bursts

Swift sent gamma-ray burst positions to telescopes on the ground within seconds for nearly 22 years. Solar storms thickened the air at its altitude. Scientific American reports reentry no later than December.

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption58
Hype gap+12
Incentives45
Confidence58
scienceOne report1 publisher

Fitting 300 solar flares to sunspot area turns 400 years of records into a superflare estimate

Krivova's team fitted flare energy against active-region area using seven years of Solar Dynamics Observatory data, then pushed that fit through the largest sunspots in 400 years of records to ask what the Sun could manage.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption20
Hype gap+18
Incentives70
Confidence52
scienceOne report1 publisher

A November superstorm dragged auroral GPS flicker as far south as Florida

A Geophysical Research Letters team paired aurora cameras with ground receivers across the US and Canada, and found hours of amplitude scintillation and 10-metre positioning error in mid-latitudes long treated as quiet.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence57
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+18
Incentives45
Confidence52