Seoul apartment prices rose 10.42% in the year after the October 15 lending curbs, 1.6 times the 6.61% of the year before, Korea Real Estate Board data show. Jeonse price growth quadrupled as a residency rule pulled rental flats off the market.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence58
Seoul apartments sold at court auction for an average 94.7% of appraised value in September, the lowest in 19 months, according to GG Auction. Units above 2.5 billion won pulled the average down, some clearing at about 79% of appraisal, while flats around 1 billion won still draw crowds bidding well above it.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Lawmakers from South Korea's two main parties have filed bills cutting the owner consent needed to form a redevelopment association from 75% to 70%. Past that early stage, Democrats push approval deadlines while the People Power Party pushes density and lighter developer obligations.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives50
- Confidence60
Seoul's new policy mortgage lends up to 320 million won to first-time buyers aged 39 or under. Turning 40 removes access to the whole youth finance track.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives50
- Confidence55
From late September, tenants can hand their lump-sum deposit to a public body instead of a landlord. The landlord's income then depends on what that body earns on the money.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Lee Hyung-il's written answers for his confirmation hearing place the next easing for non-resident single-home owners in a presidential decree the government can amend without a vote in the National Assembly.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Seoul's apartment leases above 3 million won a month rose 9.7% to 6,570 through September 22, and every added contract came from the 22 districts outside Gangnam, Seocho and Songpa, where the count fell by three.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption80
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives45
- Confidence65
Seoul's apartment price index is closing on a record run of weekly gains, and President Lee Jae-myung says the remedy is still balanced national development, so the curbs on loans and taxes stay in place.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives55
- Confidence58
A 2024 Housing Act change let owners of price-capped homes rent them out for three years. The bill comes due in 2027, and short leases in Gangdong are already pricing the exit.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives58
- Confidence52