University of Florence geologists link quakes along nearly all of the 1,200-km Apennines to a front where deep crust peels into the mantle. One moving front would account for both the stretching and the squeezing, and for where Italy's quakes are likely to strike.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence45
Stefano Tavani's group combined Italy's earthquake record with GPS and satellite ground motion to argue that the lower crust beneath the Apennines is peeling away and sinking, a late-stage process he calls unzipping.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives25
- Confidence50
A new model puts up to 6.2 miles of sediment under downtown and sharpens the basin's edges, the geometry a USGS seismologist credits for Santa Monica's unexpected damage in 1994. It is an input to shaking simulations.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives35
- Confidence66
The seismograms had been sitting in archives since 1990. What changed is that a classifier could read 174,929 faint PKP precursors out of more than two million records, enough to join isolated patches into belts.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
A study led by the University of Chicago's Sunyoung Park attributes the shift to core-reflected ScS waves arriving 13 minutes after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki mainshock. The motion is small; the mechanism is new.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives30
- Confidence38