NC State satellite mapping shows North Carolina lost 21% of its coastal forest, about 64,220 hectares, between 1985 and 2021, mostly to rising seas. Measured per year, conversion to marsh, ghost forest and shrub after 2010 ran at about triple the earlier pace.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence62
Researchers from 14 countries say the Wilkes Basin's ice could raise seas 3 to 4 meters, though its pace of retreat and its trigger are still unknown. Until someone measures the sea floor and ocean at its glacier fronts, the basin's share of future sea-level rise cannot be dated.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
Researchers writing in Nature Geoscience give at least 89% odds that the strictest Paris path costs Antarctica less ice by 2100 than very high emissions. For coastal planners, that puts part of Antarctica's future contribution to sea level within reach of emissions policy.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap0
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Researchers warn an internal Kelvin wave from this year's super El Niño could lift California sea levels by up to 30 cm once it reaches the coast. The raised water would add to winter storm surges, though the oceanographer quoted expects it to distort tides for weeks.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence58
University of Bonn geodesists mapped ocean warming basin by basin and found gaps from climate model simulations in the double-digit percentage range. The comparison covers the recent past, so whether regional projections carry the same error is still untested.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives45
- Confidence45
Researchers screening hundreds of thousands of simulated futures in Nature Geoscience find Antarctica loses ice on net this century, even at 1.5C of warming. In the runs that survive, extra snowfall does not outweigh the loss, so Antarctica adds to sea-level rise this century.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence45
Atlantic City's water in the late-September nor'easter hit its highest level since Superstorm Sandy in 2012, as peak surge met a full-moon high tide. A storm researcher calls the El Niño outlook unclear, but rising seas alone will make equally strong storms more damaging.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap0
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Osaka's ground is rising about 4 millimetres a year on average, and up to 12 in places, after Japan's early-1960s curbs on groundwater pumping. At that average pace, regaining the 2 metres or more some districts sank would take at least 500 years.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives35
- Confidence55
Researchers reviewing East Antarctica's Wilkes Subglacial Basin say its ice would raise seas 3 to 4 metres if it all melted. The basin shrank sharply in past climates 2 to 3 degrees warmer, yet too little ocean data exists to project how fast it could retreat now.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives55
- Confidence50
The August berg was the largest Arctic calving since 2020, but it broke along a fracture the team watching Petermann had not expected, leaving two rifts that together outline more than twice the area that left.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap0
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence66
The IMBIE team merged 42 independent satellite surveys from 27 missions to account for 11.3 trillion tonnes of ice lost from Greenland and Antarctica since 1979, and it assigns 84% of that loss to glaciers accelerating into the ocean.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 48%
- Operator
- Operator 44%
- Investor
- Investor 8%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+6
- Incentives30
- Confidence72
CIRES scientists measured a Petermann Ice Shelf river cutting below sea level to form an estuary that came and went from 2014 to 2018. A co-author suspects that cycle weakened the shelf ahead of its Manhattan-sized calving in August, though the imagery ends eight years earlier.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives30
- Confidence55
An ESA-led team pooled 45 surveys from 27 satellites to weigh Greenland and Antarctica back to the 1970s. It finds 11.3 trillion metric tons of ice gone since 1979, five-sixths of it to water working from below.
Reality
- Evidence82
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives38
- Confidence76
A June risk assessment of the Fens found its climate hazards increasingly overlap inside a pumped drainage system that was not designed for them, and the Environment Agency's April review of the region's flood defences reaches the same conclusion.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives60
- Confidence52
Researchers interviewed people in two coastal Kerala settings and found the island reporting sea-level rise and subsidence while the mainland reported shrinking sardines, with 65% against 16.25% saying they could act.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives52
- Confidence50
The first global systematic review of sea-level rise and shorebirds pools 37 studies across 29 species. Its authors say the dikes and roads behind a wetland set how much habitat survives the water.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
Melbourne and ANU researchers mapped inundation onto property registers under a mid-range warming scenario, then held storm intensity constant and left erosion out, which is why $855 billion is a floor.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption22
- Hype gap−12
- Incentives58
- Confidence55
An NTU Singapore study puts 76% of surveyed Indo-Pacific reef sites past their growth capacity under high emissions, with the critical rate likely crossed within 35 years.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives52
- Confidence55