Of 1,548 caution and risk designations since 2022, prices were lower 20 trading days later in 1,050 cases and down more than 30% in 398, while individuals were net buyers of 13 of the 41 stocks flagged in August.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
The Wall Street Journal says Kalshi has prepared to seek approval for roughly 60 perpetual futures on stocks and ETFs, traded around the clock. Citadel Securities says equity-linked perps belong with the SEC.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives74
- Confidence46
Nasdaq Ventures put $100 million into Payward for what works out to about half a percent, and the tokens are targeted for the second quarter of 2027. The surveillance and onboarding commitments bind sooner.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
Both of the CFTC's event-contract settlements began as Kalshi referrals, so the exchange is now funding securities-style trade surveillance in the same week the Ninth Circuit declined to shield it from Nevada gambling law.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 12%
- Operator
- Operator 35%
- Investor
- Investor 53%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption63
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives55
- Confidence71
Robert DeNault and Wharton's Daniel Taylor argue SONAR-style tools are built for the wrong insider. In prediction markets, the insider can know the contract's answer.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives66
- Confidence47