Topic
Survey-based measure of what consumers expect for future inflation, income, and economic conditions, watched as a gauge of inflation psychology.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its lowest in 12 years. Jobs data out the same day held steady. The drop traces to fuel and prices, and those are what a spending forecast built on labour figures alone misses.
Reality
Americans' confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September on the Conference Board index, with more calling present business conditions bad than good. Two years of worry about the outlook now extend to how households grade today's economy and their own finances.
Reality
American Banker's column treats last week's increase in the rate the Fed pays on bank reserves as a move on perceptions. It also says central banks now look like they are following the bond market.
Reality
The University of Michigan's August survey puts sentiment at 51.7 with declines in every political group, and the current-conditions reading has fallen far enough to close its usual gap with expectations.
Reality
A July auction took $13bn at 5.163% with bid-to-cover of 2.64, dead on the ten-auction average. Duration keeps getting bought, just never at a better price.
Reality
The University of Michigan's share of consumers expecting income to outpace inflation has fallen from 18% in December 2024 to 8%. Plans that assume full cost pass-through look fragile.
Reality