Topic
Economic indicator tracking price changes via CPI reports, core-CPI trends, and shelter/services components that influence monetary policy.
The Fed's September 16 move to 3.75-4% took the two-year note to nearly 4.75%, which is roughly the top of the range plus the 80 basis points futures have priced. Buyers get carry now. Whether they keep it comes down to August's 0.4% monthly CPI.
Reality
Core CPI at 0.3% for August pushed futures to 86% from 69% on a September Fed hike, and Seoul's open took SK hynix down 5.24% to 1.717 million won. Philadelphia's semiconductor index had closed 1.81% higher on the 11th.
Reality
Yields on 1- to 7-year Treasuries moved as much as 26 basis points in four days, and the short end is now priced for hikes. That changes the base case for anyone financing 2026.
Perspective Coverage
7 publishersReality
CME futures now put 86.5% odds on a 25-basis-point Fed hike next week, up from roughly 69% just after the core CPI print. About 21.6 basis points of that hike already sit in the curve bitcoin trades against.
Reality
Traders are waiting on Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI, but the order book already brackets spot at 78,800 and 80,500, and with a quarter-point hike 58.4% priced there is less left for the Sept. 16 meeting to move.
Reality
The bank's own estimate is 25%. The more useful detail is that the market's hike probability travelled from 12% to 45% on oil headlines, not on inflation prints.
Reality
July 2026 CPI printed at 3.4%, in line. BlackRock's fixed-income CIO argues the residual sits in shelter and services, where the policy rate has little grip.
Reality