Topic
Market pricing of the Federal Reserve's likely next moves on interest rates, reflected in bond yields, the dollar, and futures-implied odds of hikes or holds.
Truflation forecasts September US headline CPI at 3.6% and core at 2.4%, a tenth below the 3.7% and 2.5% consensus in its Oct. 9 report. The gap is wider on the monthly headline, 0.48% against 0.6%.
Reality
Treasury 10-year yields hit a 24-year high of 5.349% on Oct. 5, the day a U.S. services survey showed the highest prices reading since July 2022. French and Spanish strain looks secondary, since Spanish yields fell and French ones held that session.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishersReality
Core CPI at 0.3% for August pushed futures to 86% from 69% on a September Fed hike, and Seoul's open took SK hynix down 5.24% to 1.717 million won. Philadelphia's semiconductor index had closed 1.81% higher on the 11th.
Reality
Relief comes only with more American investment, which turns a customs rate into a capital budget for two Korean memory makers at a moment when the bond market has no appetite for another inflation input.
Reality
Odds on a September Fed hold went from near coin-toss to about 67% in four weeks, and the dollar index slid to 99.5. Any plan carrying a July FX assumption is now stale.
Reality
Headline CPI eased a tenth to 3.4% and core held at 2.5%. Neither number pays for a nine-percent monthly rally; the consensus that the Fed does nothing does.
Reality