Topic
The Conference Board's sentiment readings, the partisan split beneath them, and the shift from discretionary to necessary spending.
The National Retail Federation forecasts $1.01 trillion in November and December holiday spending, up 4.2% with no adjustment for inflation. Forecasters including the NRF and Mastercard put about half the gain on prices, so implied unit growth is nearer 2%.
Reality
Activity rose in nine of 12 Fed districts in the October Beige Book, but most reported little or no change in consumer spending. More than half said high-income households supplied much of it, and a PYMNTS survey showed confidence falling for a second month.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its lowest in 12 years. Jobs data out the same day held steady. The drop traces to fuel and prices, and those are what a spending forecast built on labour figures alone misses.
Reality
Americans' confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September on the Conference Board index, with more calling present business conditions bad than good. Two years of worry about the outlook now extend to how households grade today's economy and their own finances.
Reality
Dana Peterson expects no hike next month while markets price one, and her reasoning rests on a consumer decline now reaching independents and Republicans rather than on inflation reports that will not exist by the time the committee sits.
Reality