Susmit Satpathy's team finds that warming-driven winds lengthen Earth's day by about 10-18% of the long-term tidal-friction trend by 2100 in three climate models. The study gives a physical cause for the atmosphere's projected gain in angular momentum, which adds a small amount to the slowing that tides already cause.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives35
- Confidence50
Chinese Academy of Sciences researchers project warming will cut the South Asian monsoon's share of Mediterranean summer rain variance from 14.2% to 5.1%. The high-emissions projection is about what causes rain to swing from one summer to the next, and it does not say whether the region's summers will get wetter.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Duke's Sarah Cooley and colleagues measured a snow-and-ice cooling effect of -14.4 W/m2 over Northern Hemisphere lakes, against -8.2 over nearby land. Climate models often do not separate lakes from land, though the study as reported does not say how much that misstates the seasonal energy balance.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
A PLOS Climate study subtracts the top producers' emissions through 2024 from two runs of the FaIR model and finds their contribution to global temperature is about the same whether future emissions fall or keep climbing.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives58
- Confidence44
A Geophysical Research Letters paper compares coupled CMIP6 runs against atmosphere-only runs fed observed ocean temperatures, then adds the bias back and watches the jet move south again. Northwestern Pacific bias was particularly important.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives35
- Confidence58
Malte Jansen and colleagues derive the work that drives Earth's winds from two atmospheric quantities and find that warming's effects on them almost cancel, while the same simulations push storm tracks poleward.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives40
- Confidence60
Arctic ice drifts and spreads in ways wind-driven models get wrong. A UC Riverside-led team reports that floe-on-floe collisions, with one weakly constraining fitted parameter, reproduce three of those measured discrepancies at once.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
Woods Hole researchers pushed the record of Indian-Pacific coupling back to the early 1600s using corals, tree rings and stalagmites. Only one earlier interval, 1810 to 1850, shows the relationship breaking down.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives55
- Confidence52
A Science Advances team ran two idealized mitigation scenarios. Southern Ocean uptake weakened and then reversed in both, and in the negative-emissions run the globally averaged flux turned from sink to source in 2154.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives30
- Confidence50
A Nature Climate Change study finds the same warming that leaves Atlantic currents intact near 5.5C if reached slowly can tip them at 2C at today's emissions rate.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives42
- Confidence52