University of Bristol researchers set out five steps in The Lancet to protect health from a super El Niño expected late this year. Most of the steps ask for evidence first, because the extra health burden El Niño adds to climate change is still largely unmeasured.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Natural History Museum and Oxford researchers matched the timing of more than 6,000 Nigerian Lassa cases using rainfall and nearly 30 years of rodent data. Because the model runs on weather and rodent ecology, health authorities could use it to anticipate when the risk of spillover to people climbs each season.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence50
Sustentarea at the University of Sao Paulo mapped under-5 stunting and overweight against per capita emissions for Brazilian municipalities from 2008 to 2019. It shows where the problems overlap, though local emissions cannot test the climate-to-diet chain said to link them.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Writing in Nature Human Behaviour, a Heidelberg group argues that health inequity is produced outside health systems, and asks climate planners to state in advance which groups each measure helps and which it leaves worse off.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives60
- Confidence52
The Annenberg Public Policy Center surveyed 1,904 adults in early August and found the health-attribution figure level with 2024 and 2025, while knowledge of where to find a cooling center sat where it did a year ago.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
The World Health Organization counts one in six infections as drug resistant, and a growing body of research argues that heat and chemical stress help resistance genes persist and travel. The size of that contribution is still unmeasured.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
Stanford researchers are coating informal-settlement roofs in Indonesia to cut indoor heat by up to 5F. The defence offered is physiological rather than comfort, and the cost is still unpriced.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives62
- Confidence42