GHSA-7g4w-cg88-2cq2 was reported on April 25, judged no threat to live funds, and quietly patched on August 19. Attackers drained six chains starting the next day, and the only real fix breaks state.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence62
Eigen Labs' ECDSA.Fail leaderboard took the resource score for one step of a quantum key recovery from 10.75 billion to 1.496 billion by July 26, while the defense side works to fixed dates in 2029 and 2030.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives66
- Confidence63
Three regulators have now dated the migration away from today's encryption, and the nearest date belongs to FINMA, which wants supervised institutions to get a post-quantum strategy through the board by mid-2027.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives45
- Confidence45
The 26-day figure is a runtime rather than a date, and it works out to one logical Toffoli every 57.6 milliseconds on trapped-ion hardware whose scale IonQ's roadmap does not reach until 2028. No error rates are published to check it.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives80
- Confidence40
Google has floated 2029 for moving digital assets off elliptic curve cryptography. Roughly 93% of the market sits on it, and no single party can order the migration.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives74
- Confidence52