Topic
The continental ice mass covering Antarctica, holding enough ice to raise global sea level by about 58 meters, and the largest long-term source of potential sea-level rise.
Thwaites Glacier kept losing ice for all 150 simulated years in three models with ocean melting set to zero, New Scientist reports. The setup is physically impossible, so it shows the glacier's momentum but not how much sea level will rise.
Reality
UC Irvine and JPL glaciologists project up to 30 mm of Thwaites sea-level rise by 2100, twice earlier estimates, even with no added warming. Replacing the grounding line with a grounding zone made the model's reconstruction of past change four times more pronounced.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishersReality
Researchers from 14 countries say the Wilkes Basin's ice could raise seas 3 to 4 meters, though its pace of retreat and its trigger are still unknown. Until someone measures the sea floor and ocean at its glacier fronts, the basin's share of future sea-level rise cannot be dated.
Reality
Researchers writing in Nature Geoscience give at least 89% odds that the strictest Paris path costs Antarctica less ice by 2100 than very high emissions. For coastal planners, that puts part of Antarctica's future contribution to sea level within reach of emissions policy.
Reality
Researchers screening hundreds of thousands of simulated futures in Nature Geoscience find Antarctica loses ice on net this century, even at 1.5C of warming. In the runs that survive, extra snowfall does not outweigh the loss, so Antarctica adds to sea-level rise this century.
Reality