Equis traces the 27-point drop in Trump's Latino approval to wages and prices

Sixty-six percent approval among people who already voted for you means about a third of them no longer approve. Trump won 48 percent of Latino voters in 2024, up from 36 percent in 2020 and 28 percent in 2016 ^[1]. Apply the 34 points of non-approval to that 48 and roughly 16 percent of the Latino electorate backed him and has since stopped approving ^[12]. The fall from 93 percent is 27 points, a 29 percent decline against where it started ^[3].

Vox's explanation is the economy, and it reports that the conditions have not moved much: rising costs and stagnant wages during the 2024 campaign, the same trend since ^[4]. The target moved. In 2024 the blame went to Biden and his administration, including Harris, from all voters and particularly Latinos; now it goes to Trump ^[5]. Anyone who sets pay or prices should take that transfer seriously, because it happened without a new shock.

The account of why this group moves further than others comes from Stephanie Valencia, who co-founded Equis Research, a political research firm specializing in Latino voters, speaking with Astead Herndon on Vox's America, Actually ^[6]. "I think one important data point to understand about the Latino voter is Latinos make up more of the wage workforce than any other part or any other racial subgroup," she said. "And so what that means is when wages are down and inflation is high, Latinos feel it more." ^[7] She also rejects the usual label, saying the group should be called the swinging giant instead, given how much shift she has seen election to election ^[10]. A third of Latinos, by her count, sit in an independent or apolitical middle ^[11].

This is one firm's number relayed in a podcast interview, and approval among one candidate's own voters tells you nothing about consumer demand. Vox does not give the polling dates, the sample or the method behind the 93 and 66 readings ^[14]. Valencia's claim about who is in the wage workforce is something an employer with a large hourly payroll can check against its own headcount, without waiting for the next poll.

The trade-off for a company that employs hourly workers and also sells to them is pay against price, and the two do not net out. A raise and a price increase land on the same household. Valencia's second point is about reaching that household at all. Campaigns translate an English ad into Spanish, then target it digitally to people whose browser settings are in Spanish ^[8]. Valencia grew up speaking mostly English, listens to Spanish-language radio and watches Spanish-language content on YouTube with everything online set in English on Chrome ^[9].

None of this forecasts a retailer's volumes next quarter, but the cohort most exposed to wage and price movement reassigned blame inside a single presidential term, under conditions Vox describes as continuous since 2024 ^[4].