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Ramp's index shows US companies using about 50% more AI tokens on a smaller bill

Ramp's AI Index shows US corporate token use up about 50% since July while AI spending fell, as effective token prices dropped 41%. Usage has not grown enough to cover the price cut, so competition between OpenAI and Anthropic has so far moved revenue from the two sellers to their customers.

The Investor · Invest desk

Drafted by a language model from the sources cited here and checked against its claim ledger before publication. How we use AISend a correction

Illustration accompanying Ramp's index shows US companies using about 50% more AI tokens on a smaller bill
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What happened

  • Anthropic handled 51% of token usage in Ramp's sample in the last week of September and OpenAI 44.5%, while open-source models stayed under 5%.
  • Ramp economist Ara Kharazian attributes the spending decline almost entirely to OpenAI-Anthropic price competition, plus cheaper and more efficient standard and lite models.
  • Ramp's spending figures cover 70,000 US firms. Its token figures draw on a smaller sample built around API customers and weighted toward large buyers.
  • Of 472 companies in the State of Tokenomics survey, 86% were using or evaluating model routers, and router users were four times as likely to show CFOs measurable value.

Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made

Why it matters

  • cost Buyers keeping part of the price cut means OpenAI and Anthropic are paying for their customers' savings out of their own revenue, at least within Ramp's sample.
  • exposure Two sellers account for 95.5% of sampled tokens, so any further price cut comes almost entirely out of their revenue; open-source suppliers are too small to share it.
  • constraint Chip and cloud suppliers cannot treat the token rise as their own growth rate while buyers expect to move work off frontier models toward cheaper ones.

Keeping a token bill flat after a 41% price cut takes about 69% more usage, because 1 divided by 0.59 is roughly 1.69 [15]. Ramp counted about 50% [3]. If the two figures cover the same months, the bill ends at 0.59 times 1.5, or about 88.5% of where it began [16]. Put another way, buyers spent roughly 72% of the saving on extra tokens and kept the other 28% [18]. Ramp's data puts the effective price at about $0.68 per million tokens after the fall [8]. The article does not give the size of the spending drop or the period behind the 41%, so the 28% depends on the two figures sharing a window [3][8].

The populations differ too. Because the token sample leans toward large API buyers [6], the record usage and the lower bill may belong to different companies.

Kharazian said the competition is "making AI more accessible" [7]. Per token, it has also cut what the sellers collect by 41% [8]. Cryptopolitan's write-up says the dynamic could pressure provider margins while lifting demand for inference, cloud and chips [19]. Margin is price minus the cost of serving a token, and Ramp's transaction data measures the price [6].

The chip and cloud half of that claim is harder to get from these numbers. In the State of Tokenomics survey, 51% of companies said they rely heavily on frontier models, and only 24% expect to a year from now [10]. Frank Flight of Citadel Securities argues that adoption depends more and more on affordable compute, power and inference capacity [1]. If the volume growth sits in lighter models, a 50% rise in tokens [3] is a smaller order for that capacity than the headline figure.

Buyers have reasons to keep deploying. KPMG's Q3 AI Pulse found nearly six in ten leaders reporting measurable AI value [13]. "AI's value story is getting sharper," said Todd Lohr, KPMG's vice chair and head of client technology and innovation [14].

Two outcomes fit the September data. In one, agents make volume outrun price: the OECD notes agents can consume far more tokens per task [11], and Gartner forecasts inference costs per agentic workflow rising more than fivefold by 2028 [12]. In the other, routing keeps pulling the effective price down about as fast as usage rises, so token records and smaller bills keep arriving together [9]. I think the second fits September better. Buyers put about seven-tenths of the price cut into extra usage [18], short of the full offset that Citadel Securities says lower unit prices can unlock [2]. That view is wrong if Ramp's spending line climbs back above its July peak while the effective token price keeps falling [3].

What to watch

  • Ramp publishing the size of the spending decline and the period behind the 41% price fall, the two numbers needed to check the estimate that buyers kept 28% of the cut.
  • Open-source models rising above their sub-5% share of tokens, the point at which price competition stops being a contest between two sellers.
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