Unions lead $7.8 million campaign to defend a tax that starts collecting in 2029

Whether this is a rout depends on which committees you count. Let's Go Washington's $3.7 million sits on the repeal side, and adding it to the Vote Yes committee's money puts repeal at $5 million against $7.8 million, or about 1.6 to 1 ^[4][2]. Leave it out, on the grounds that part of that money is aimed at ballot measures on transgender athletes and parental rights, and the defenders lead six to one ^[4][1].

Set either figure against what the tax collects and both shrink. A 9.9% levy on household earnings above $1 million projected at more than $3 billion a year makes the $7.8 million defense 0.26% of one year's receipts ^[5][2][3]. Three unions put up most of it: $3 million from the teachers, nearly $2 million from SEIU, $1 million from the state employees union. That is about $6 million of the $7.8 million, or 77% ^[1][8][4].

The base is thin. Divide the projection by the payers and each of the 25,000 households averages about $120,000 ^[7][5]. At 9.9% on income above the first million, that average payer reports roughly $2.2 million of household income ^[6]. Five percent of the proceeds is earmarked for childcare and early learning subsidies, about $150 million a year at the projected level ^[7][7].

Nobody has paid yet. Collections start in 2029, about three years after the November vote, and they do not start at all if I-645 passes ^[6][8]. So the unions are spending 2026 dues on a 2029 receipt while the governor tells them there is no money for raises next year, a position the Washington Federation of State Employees answered with walk-offs ^[9][12]. Mike Yestramski, the federation's president, said saving the income tax will help fix the state's regressive tax code and prevent "austerity cuts" to state services ^[13].

"We are super-conscious that every penny we spend comes straight from our members' pockets," said Tani Lindquist, vice president of the teachers union ^[10]. Steve Gordon, the retired Pierce County trucking company owner who chairs the yes campaign, said, "It's a self-sustaining money machine for the interests that are funding it" ^[11]. Adam Glickman, secretary-treasurer of SEIU 775, said union caregivers making $22 an hour pay 16% or more of their income in taxes while the richest Washingtonians pay 3%. He put that down to the state's reliance on sales taxes ^[14].

The filings measure which side has payroll attached to the result: dues from members whose wages come out of the general fund, against checks from the people who would owe the bill ^[9][18]. I'd expect that side to out-raise the payers wherever a state tries this. They say nothing about how people will vote. The business owners and firms funding repeal are writing their own money, and they can write it late. If I-645 passes in November despite a six-to-one gap, the money was never the signal, and the state loses a projected $3 billion a year ^[18][5][6].