Kyiv's own loss range runs a fifth to a third of the $40 billion it flagged

Two numbers in the same assessment measure different things, and the gap between them is where a buyer has to make a decision. Ukraine's total exports in 2025 were $40.5 billion, itself down 3 per cent on the year ^[8]. So the roughly $40 billion the Economy Ministry describes as threatened ^[1] is 98.8 per cent of everything the country sold abroad last year ^[2]. The loss the ministry projects is $8 billion to $15 billion annualized, depending on how long port access stays restricted ^[7], or 19.8 to 37 per cent of the 2025 total ^[3].

For the second half of 2026 alone the figure is $7 billion to $8 billion ^[6], according to the economy minister's assessment as reported by Cryptobriefing. Grain capacity is down 2 million tons a month, from about 6 million to about 4 million ^[5], a third of throughput ^[1]. Six months of that is 12 million tons, and $7 billion to $8 billion spread across 12 million tons works out at $583 to $667 a ton ^[4]. The figure covers more than grain. Up to 90 per cent of iron ore exports, worth about $2.5 billion a year, depend on port access ^[11], and around 80 per cent of metals, a category worth roughly $4.5 billion ^[12].

Agricultural products, corn and sunflower oil among them, are about 60 per cent of export volume and around $25 billion of annual potential revenue ^[10]. Add ore and metals, and the port-dependent categories come to $32 billion, which is 79 per cent of the 2025 export total ^[5].

Overland is the substitute, and a partial one. Rail and road are picking up 33 to 40 per cent of the volumes that would normally move through ports ^[9]. The ministry does not say whether the base is total throughput or the 2 million tons displaced. On the narrower reading, overland recovers 660,000 to 800,000 tons a month ^[6]. The rest has to be stored, and the ministry says logistics and storage costs inside Ukraine are rising against storage capacity that has limits ^[15].

In my view the planning number is the $8 billion to $15 billion range. That range is a projected flow of losses. The $40 billion is the whole base sitting behind the ports. The counter is that the range nearly doubles across its own span and turns entirely on duration ^[7], while $10 billion of infrastructure damage is booked whatever happens to monthly tonnage ^[2], as is a projected 1.5 percentage point hit to GDP this year ^[3]. If monthly volumes climb back toward 6 million tons before year-end, the $8 billion end will look high and the whole thing prices as a freight problem. President Zelenskyy has warned of potential global food security risks from the blockade ^[13], and the shortfall is felt in import-dependent regions across Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia ^[14].