US plant milk volume is down 6% while dairy milk gains, and almond is most of the hole

Circana told Dairy Foods that US plant milk sales fell 3.7% in dollars and 6% in volume in the 52 weeks ending July 13, while dairy milk rose 4.8% in dollars on flat volume ^[1]. That is an 8.5 point dollar-growth gap between two sets of products sold from the same refrigerated case ^[1], and it runs opposite to the global picture Grand View Research publishes for dairy alternatives: $32.7 billion in 2024, $66.9 billion by 2030, a 12.7% compound annual growth rate ^[2], or roughly a doubling in six years ^[6].

Both numbers can be true, because they are not describing the same shelf. Asia Pacific was the largest dairy alternatives market in 2024, and Grand View Research points to lactose intolerance and milk allergies as a major driver, with intolerance particularly common among Southeast Asian populations ^[3]. None of that underwrites a US line extension.

The domestic decline is also narrower than the headline suggests. Almond is 66% of plant milk volume and is down 7.1% in dollars and 9.5% in volume, according to Circana's John Crawford ^[4]. At that share, almond alone accounts for about 6.3 points of volume decline, which is the entire category drop, implying the rest of the segments were collectively close to flat ^[2]. Oat, the second-largest type at 20% of volume, is flat in dollars and up 1.3% in volume ^[5]. Crawford's account of oat is worth keeping: it won in coffee shops before retail because its texture sat closer to dairy milk than almond did, passed soy quickly, and has since struggled alongside almond ^[6]. Note also that plant milk dollars fell less than volume, which implies average revenue per unit rose about 2.4% ^[3]. Price is holding while units leave.

The number that should worry a product roadmap is household reach. Circana puts dairy milk in 91% of households annually against 38% for plant milks, itself down 1.4 percentage points ^[7], so plant milk is in roughly two fifths as many baskets as dairy ^[4]. BENEO's Jamie Matthews cites a McKinsey survey finding a quarter of US consumers buy both conventional dairy and alternatives, with only 5% buying plant-based exclusively ^[8]. Dual buyers outnumber plant-only buyers about five to one ^[5], which makes most plant milk volume an add-on rather than a replacement. Matthews also cites a 2023 survey done for BENEO in which 41% of US respondents said they try to avoid or limit dairy ^[9]. Stated intent at 41% and penetration at 38% and falling are not the same instrument.

Explanations vary by who is offering them. Daphna Miller, co-founder and CEO of NewMoo, which sells into the next-generation alternatives space, attributes the decline to taste, texture and nutrition, saying 57% report the experience does not meet expectations and that many products fall short on protein and key nutrients, with some brands pulling products from shelves ^[10]. Cargill's Allison Leibovich frames the same period as normalization, with the frenzy to launch new products slowing rather than plant-based fading ^[11]. On the ingredient side, BENEO is pointing developers at faba bean, multi-ingredient plant protein blends, and clean-label functional ingredients such as inulin and native rice starch ^[12].

Watch whether oat's 1.3% volume gain survives its flat dollars, whether almond's 66% volume share erodes further, and whether the 38% household figure falls again in the next 52-week read. A category losing buyers needs a different plan than one losing units.