Lockup expirations quadruple SpaceX's float ahead of the September Nasdaq 100 rebalance

CryptoBriefing puts the passive inflow from the Invesco QQQ ETF at SpaceX's July inclusion at roughly $4.3 billion, struck when the float was 3 to 5% of the company and the index weight was held under 1% ^[8][5]. Take the midpoint of that range, 4%, and the move to 16% is a fourfold increase in the shares Nasdaq counts ^[14]. Scale July's purchase by the same factor and QQQ alone needs about $12.9 billion more ^[17]. That assumes the fund's assets and SpaceX's share price sit where they did in July.

The supply side is larger. A $1.75 trillion valuation at the $135 IPO price implies about 12.96 billion shares outstanding ^[15], so the twelve points of float added since July are roughly 1.56 billion shares, worth about $210 billion at that price ^[16]. The index bid is about 6% of that ^[18]. CryptoBriefing places the rebalance in September without giving the day. It reports no share price after the IPO, so every figure here is priced at $135 ^[19].

The weight is also still capped. Nasdaq applies its 3x multiplier whenever less than 33.3% of a company's shares are publicly available ^[4], and 16 times three is 48, short of the 100 that a 33.3% float would produce ^[13]. SpaceX therefore moves from under 1% of the index to something under 4% ^[21]. The multiplier keeps binding until the float clears a third of the company, and the expirations run on a staggered schedule through December 2026 ^[7].

Employees and early investors whose shares have just become sellable may sell into the rebalance window, in which case the funds buy from them and the price barely moves ^[12]. QQQ's assets may have grown since July, which makes the dollar figure larger than $12.9 billion. And if the December expirations push the float past a third of the company, the multiplier falls away, a bigger single step than September's ^[11].

I would not read a rebalance bid as support for the $1.75 trillion price ^[1]. The buying is real, dated and legible to anyone who reads the index rules ^[10], and it is small next to the stock being freed to meet it. If the September session moves SpaceX several percent and the move holds, insiders are keeping their shares and the 6% figure understates the pressure.