IPO proceeds tripled to $205.1B, but the deal count barely moved

Global IPO proceeds reached $205.1 billion in the first half, three times the year-earlier total, according to Nihon Keizai Shimbun's analysis of London Stock Exchange Group data ^[1]. The number of deals rose just 8%, to 689 ^[3], which is the part operators should read first: the exit market reopened for a very small number of very large companies.

Do the arithmetic. Tripling from $205.1 billion implies roughly $68 billion in the prior first half ^[1], and an 8% increase to 689 deals implies about 638 deals before ^[2]. Average proceeds per listing therefore went from roughly $107 million to roughly $298 million ^[3]. Nothing in that says more companies got out. It says the ones that got out were bigger.

The concentration is stark. The US share of global IPO inflows was 75%, up from 44% a year earlier ^[4], or about $154 billion ^[4]. SpaceX, which listed on Nasdaq in June, drew $86.25 billion and accounted for 42% of the global IPO market this year ^[5] and roughly 56% of the US total ^[4]. Strip SpaceX out and the rest of the world's IPO market raised about $119 billion, or 1.7 times the prior-year first half ^[5] rather than three times it. The Nikkei called this the strongest first half in five years, since the $347.5 billion of the first half of 2021, when policy was accommodative globally ^[2]; at $205.1 billion, the current half is about 59% of that peak ^[6]. Europe's standout was Czechoslovak Group, the Czech Republic's largest defense company, at $4.4 billion amid the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine ^[6].

The sell side expects more. JPMorgan says the IPO queue is at a record high, with Anthropic in the pipeline ^[7], and General Atlantic projected that "with institutional investors having reaped enormous returns from their SpaceX investments, the offering market will gain further momentum in the second half" ^[8]. That is a statement about supply of deals, not about the depth of the bid. Nasdaq will begin overnight trading from 9 p.m. to 4 a.m. Eastern on December 6, which combined with the 4 a.m. to 8 p.m. session puts the exchange open 23 hours a day, five days a week ^[9].

The offsetting facts are in the bond market and in the valuation debate. The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.32%, its highest since June 2007 ^[11], while the two-year fell after late July on weaker-than-expected employment and retail sales, producing a twist steepening ^[12]. The Nikkei attributed the long end's weakness to shrinking purchases by Japanese institutions, worsening US finances, and competition for capital from a surge in AI corporate bond issuance ^[13]. Higher long-term rates raise the discount rate used to value companies, which cuts the present value of firms whose expected growth sits far out in the future ^[14]. Separately, ECB economists warned on the 18th that a correction in US tech stocks is inevitable, arguing the boom may be driven by investors with "excessive confidence and undue optimism" and that valuations must fall even if AI technology succeeds ^[10].

Watch three things. Whether the second-half pipeline converts at prices that hold, starting with Anthropic ^[7]. Whether deal count, not proceeds, starts rising, which is the only signal that the window is open to companies without a defense or AI story. And the 30-year yield ^[11]: if the term premium keeps widening, the discount rate does the pricing work no bookrunner can talk around ^[14].