Goldman's board weighs handing David Solomon's job to John Waldron by early 2028

Apollo offered Waldron $500 million and a write-your-own-ticket role in 2024, according to Semafor, and he turned it down ^[5]. Set against Goldman's retention award ^[4], the rival bid was 6.25 times larger ^[16]. A banker might decline a gap that size out of loyalty, or rather, because he has been promised something worth more. Semafor's columnist took the second view, writing that the refusal was "not something one does without assurances" ^[17]. If that is right, the board is now setting the date for a choice it had already signalled by 2024.

The date itself is soft. The Journal's account, as relayed by The Daily Upside, cites people familiar with the matter and describes a board discussion ^[1]. Goldman has lost heirs in this position before. John Thain and John Thornton never succeeded Hank Paulson, and Gary Cohn tired of waiting under Lloyd Blankfein ^[13]. When Solomon became chief executive, he gave Waldron the firm's second-most important job ^[3].

The case for continuity rests on the consumer losses. Goldman also paid a $65 million Consumer Financial Protection Bureau penalty over disputes on the credit cards it issued with Apple ^[7]. According to the Journal, Waldron was a sounding board for leaders and partners who doubted the consumer foray ^[12]. He also worked with Solomon on a strategy anchored in global banking, markets and asset management ^[11]. Client assets in the management division have reached $1.9 trillion, per the latest annual report ^[15]. The Daily Upside expects the move away from consumer toward those core businesses to continue under him ^[20].

Semafor's column makes the opposite case. "The transformation, if it comes, will be Waldron's," the columnist wrote ^[19], describing a 56-year-old dealmaker who has staked out ground on AI and China ^[8]. Earlier this year Waldron told CNBC that the firm is "a human assembly line" that will become more digitized ^[10]. The same column holds that Solomon, unless he strikes the big deal many have assumed he wants, will be remembered as a stabilizing, corporatizing leader ^[18].

The sources leave room for three outcomes. Waldron could take over on the loose schedule with the strategy intact. Solomon could do a large acquisition first ^[18]. Or the date could slip, as earlier Goldman successions did ^[13]. I think the first is the likeliest on strategy, because the heir helped design what he would inherit ^[11]. I'd expect change under him to show up first as automation spending, with new businesses later if at all. A large deal before the handover, or Waldron adding a business outside banking, markets and asset management, would prove that wrong.