Gangnam-area sites hold 1,853 of the 18,000 homes on Seoul's new public housing list

Seocho's 918 homes east of Isu Station and Songpa's 935 near Olympic Park ^[10] are the two smallest of the eight sites with published sizes. Together they make up about a tenth of the total ^[1][2]. Gangnam District itself is not among the 10 districts named ^[3][8].

Most of the homes are in Yangcheon and Yongsan. Yongsan's site is planned for 4,040 homes north of Hyochang Park Station, a transfer point between Subway Line 6 and the Gyeongui-Jungang Line ^[7]. With Mok-dong, the two biggest sites hold 8,262 homes, or 46% of the list ^[3]. Add Gangseo's 2,335 and Gwangjin's 1,663 ^[8], then Eunpyeong's 961 and Mapo's 940 ^[9], and the eight published sites come to 16,014 homes. That leaves roughly 2,000 across the second Gwangjin site, Guro and Seongbuk ^[4].

Owners came back for returns. Under the program, public agencies redevelop aging central neighborhoods where low returns had kept private projects away ^[13]. Resident interest picked up once the government improved those returns with incentives ^[23]. Among them, it raised the floor area ratio cap to 1.4 times from 1.2 times ^[16], about 17% more buildable floor area at the ceiling ^[5]. "It is also encouraging that the 1.4-times easing of the floor area ratio increases the supply of homes sold on the open market," said an official involved in one of the complex districts ^[19]. The same official said a project that would have taken far longer under private developers had been pulled forward by about a decade ^[20].

The state does not set the pace here, because designation needs owner consent ^[21]. It offers density and waits for owners to accept. The record on that wait is short. The first site to break ground anywhere in the program, 3,497 homes near Jemulpo Station in Incheon, will start five years after it was picked if work begins this year ^[18]. The National Assembly passed a three-year extension of the program's sunset deadline only last month ^[17].

The ministry took 11 of 44 resident proposals, a quarter ^[6], screening partly on the share of residents in favor ^[5]. From here the list can go three ways. Consent clears at the screened sites and designation arrives on schedule; the Mok-dong and Yongsan sites stall and take nearly half the homes with them; or Seocho and Songpa move first, if open-market sales in a sought-after area make residents' contributions easier to accept. On paper the list covers 36% of the 50,000 homes the government set out to deliver when it revived the program last year ^[15][7]. The report does not tie the chosen sites to local price trends. The evidence therefore does not show the list aiming supply at the districts where prices have been hardest to cool.

I think the list shrinks before designation. Since 2021 owners have balked at the bill ^[14], and support strong enough to pass screening is not yet a two-thirds vote. If Mok-dong and Yongsan clear that threshold inside the designation window, the view is wrong and the 1.4-times cap fixed what stalled the program.