Seoul apartment permit filings fall to a third of their April peak

The two decline figures for August do not agree with each other, and the calendar explains the gap. Divide the 3,012 filings by the reported daily average of 150.6 and August had 20 counting days; divide July's 4,618 by 209.9 and July had 22 ^[1][5][2]. So the 34.8% month-on-month fall has two missing days inside it, and the fall per working day was 28.3% ^[1][5].

Two comparisons set the level. August ran at 33.9% of April's 8,896 ^[4][1], and 25.1% below the 4,019 recorded last November, a month after the whole city became a land transaction permit zone ^[2][3][4].

The price side is harder to interpret. The citywide figure averages districts moving in opposite directions, over a sample whose composition is changing. Application prices across Seoul rose 0.17% in August after 1.41% in July, about 1.58% across the two months together ^[8][5]. Northern filings fell 31.4% to 1,471 while the rest of the city fell 37.7% ^[11][3]. The north was 46.4% of July's 4,618, or roughly 2,143 filings, and 1,541 of August's 3,012 came from everywhere else ^[1][11][3]. Its share went to 48.8% from 46.4% ^[11].

The Seoul Metropolitan Government said the northern districts' larger share does not reflect an increase in transactions but continued demand from people buying homes to live in, concentrated in areas where prices are relatively lower ^[13]. It described the market as showing regional differentiation, not a uniform correction ^[14].

I would not read the 0.17% as evidence that Seoul prices are holding up. Two of the four district groupings the city publishes recorded lower application prices in August ^[9]. The grouping with the largest gain supplied nearly half the filings ^[9][11], so the citywide average is being carried by the cheapest part of the city just as that part comes to dominate a shrinking sample ^[8][11]. Another explanation fits the same numbers. The northern bid may be owner-occupier money, less exposed to the lending restrictions and to the July and August base rate increases the city blames for higher funding costs ^[6][13]. Prices there could keep rising on 1,471 filings a month ^[11].

A recovery in filings through September and October, with northern application prices turning negative, would show a market that repriced and then cleared. That would count against my view. August instead pairs the smallest filing count since the zone took effect with rising application prices in the north and the Han River belt ^[2][9].