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Robinhood is paying Citadel's July price for an undisclosed minority slice of the venue that will clear volume Robinhood can move at will, which makes OG.com a fourth supplier rather than an owned engine.
The Investor · Invest desk
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The stake is the term worth chewing on, and nobody disclosed its size [7]. Robinhood is buying at a price Citadel Securities set in July, the $20bn mark on the Crypto.com group that carries a standalone $5bn for OG.com [6], and since that round was Crypto.com's first institutional money [8], the reference price on this equity is exactly one quote old. That makes Robinhood a price-taker on the shares and the price-setter on the flow, because the arrangement is billed as OG.com's largest B2B prediction-markets partnership by transaction volume [3] and the volume in question is routed out of Robinhood's own app [2].
OG's $5bn is a quarter of the group's $20bn [1], attached to a business Crypto.com launched as a standalone app in February and has since carved into its own capitalised entity [9], roughly seven months from launch to spin-off [6]. Set that against the customer's economics: event-contract revenue of $156m in the second quarter, up more than tenfold, implies a year-earlier base below about $15.6m [12][2] and a current run rate near $624m [3], so the mark on the venue is about eight times the whole run rate of the flow it is being paid to clear [7]. On contracts traded through early June, even crediting every one of them to the quarter, the take works out to about a cent apiece [4], and the real figure is higher because they did not all fall in that quarter.
The tidy reading is vertical control, and it does not survive the supplier list. OG joins Kalshi, ForecastEx and Rothera, the CFTC-licensed exchange Robinhood runs as a joint venture with Susquehanna and tested during this year's World Cup [10][11]. Robinhood already owns the integrated option and keeps buying pipes anyway, so what it bought here is a fourth route with an equity kicker attached: a volume rebate paid in shares of the venue instead of in basis points, which is roughly what Mackenzie meant by more skin in the game [19].
This reads differently depending on which of three paths plays out over the next year. If Marszalek's stated ambition holds and OG becomes the venue for futures and perpetuals, with equity-linked perps flagged as the next filing [17][18], the stake is an option on a book far larger than event contracts and $5bn was cheap. If event-contract volume normalises, Robinhood owns a minority slice priced at a peak mark. If Rothera absorbs the routing, OG's standalone mark loses the customer that justifies it [3].
What would settle the control question is disclosure of a stake large enough to consolidate, or exclusivity on routing; the announcement contains neither [5][7]. The price reaction decayed on schedule, HOOD up about 3.4% premarket near $126 and 0.8% by 9:48 in New York [14][15], roughly a quarter of the move surviving the open [5], while CRO added more than 6% to $0.06 a month after a three-year low that followed Trump Media Group's cancelled deals [16]. Right now Robinhood collects a slice of the fee on its own flow and pays for that slice at a price someone else negotiated, a step short of owning the clearing engine that would let it collect the fee on the flow outright.
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Robinhood Markets and OG.com announced a multi-year partnership on September 8, 2026, designating OG.com as an infrastructure and clearing provider for Robinhood's Prediction Markets offering.
Under the agreement Robinhood will route retail event contract volume through OG.com's CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse architecture.
Robinhood is taking minority equity stakes in both Crypto.com and OG.com.
Robinhood's stakes will be priced in line with Citadel Securities' recent investment in Crypto.com, which valued the group at $20 billion including a standalone $5 billion valuation for OG.com.
Citadel Securities' July investment was Crypto.com's first-ever institutional funding round.
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The deal's structure holds up, but the key number never surfaces
Bloomberg, Decrypt and Bankless all published within about an hour of the same Tuesday statement, and PR Newswire is that statement, so the deal terms rest on a single telling by the two parties who signed it. Two things lift it above announcement copy: Bloomberg independently confirms the pricing benchmark and the intraday share reaction, and the $156 million quarter comes from Robinhood's reported results rather than the release. The gap is precisely the one an investor needs closed, since nobody has the size of Robinhood's stakes.
Day-one routing into a business that is already large
OG.com-backed contracts started reaching eligible U.S. customers the same morning the deal was announced, in phases, which is about as thin as an adoption record gets for the new venue. The demand it plugs into is measured and substantial: 16 billion contracts by early June and $156 million of second-quarter revenue, all of it cleared elsewhere. Robinhood has also shown it moves flow when it wants to, having migrated from Kalshi to Rothera around the World Cup.
Issuer language runs well ahead of an undisclosed minority stake
The release calls the deal landmark, promises two category-defining financial powerhouses, and ranks the partnership largest by volume without producing a volume. Marszalek's global-liquidity ambition and the perpetual futures follow-on both sit behind clearances that have not been granted. Bloomberg's version, cut down to the Citadel price and a 0.8% share move, is roughly what the record supports; the premarket 3.4% had already given back three quarters of itself by mid-morning.
Cross-holdings, an issuer release and a token that trades on the news
The founding document is a joint press release from two companies that now hold equity in each other, so each has a balance-sheet reason to talk the other up. Decrypt is candid that its parent Dastan builds Myriad, a competing prediction market, which is the clearest disclosed interest in the set and worth holding in mind against its framing. CRO's 6% move the same morning shows a listed token is attached to this narrative, a month after Trump Media Group walked away from separate Crypto.com deals.
The facts check out; the price tag remains unresolved
Four outlets agree on the structure, the valuation mark and the market reaction, so there is little doubt about the facts of the day. Sizing it is another matter: the stake size was never disclosed, the volume ranking was never quantified, and the product itself is still waiting on CFTC approval, so the economics stay open. The only internal discrepancy in the file is small, Decrypt's CRO figures differing between its own summary and its body, and the supplier count reads three or four depending on whether ForecastEx is included.
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