Under-30s lead seniors on protein supplements 37% to 23% in Pew's survey

Counted inside the 67% of under-30s who take at least one supplement ^[2], the 37% who take protein ^[1] make up about 55% of young supplement takers ^[1]. For adults 65 and older the same division gives about 27%, half that share ^[2].

Vitamins still reach more of the young than protein does, 48% against 37% ^[1][3]. Pew's protein question also counts powders, drinks and bars ^[1], and Fortune notes that a shake or bar can fit into a meal or an afternoon snack ^[15]. So some of what the survey counts as a supplement is eaten as a snack. The protein cereal, pasta and soda that companies are now selling ^[6] fall outside Pew's question. The reporting includes no sales or revenue figures for any of them.

The industry view comes from Scott Dicker, senior director of market insights at the consumer data firm SPINS ^[16]. "Rather than viewing supplements as a separate health regimen, younger consumers increasingly see function as something that can be incorporated into the products they're already consuming throughout the day," Dicker said ^[7]. He said older shoppers favor foods naturally high in protein, such as yogurt and cottage cheese, while younger ones buy protein added to categories that had little of it, such as cereal ^[9]. "You can't walk in any aisle in the grocery store without seeing protein-enhanced products," he told Fortune ^[8].

The data leave three readings open. If the gap is generational, the habit travels with the cohort and added-protein cereal keeps its buyers into middle age. If it comes from age, Fortune's own caveat applies: today's 22-year-old protein-shake drinker could become tomorrow's multivitamin buyer ^[10]. Getting older also strengthens the case for protein. Roger Clemens, a professor at USC's Mann School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, pointed to sarcopenia, the involuntary loss of muscle mass and strength with age ^[11]. Dicker said older consumers are also seeking protein to help preserve muscle ^[13]. "Protein is quite complicated," Clemens told Fortune ^[12]. The third reading is that fortified food adds to protein demand without drawing down the core formats, and Dicker's account of powders and bars fits it ^[6].

I think the evidence supports a mix shift inside protein, toward foods that never carried much of it. It does not yet support a forecast for vitamin sales. The strongest counter-thesis is the age effect, because both the nutritional case for protein and the vitamin habit sit with the old ^[3][11]. The case for migration away from pill bottles fails if this cohort's vitamin use climbs from 48% toward the seniors' 81% as it ages ^[3].