Saudi Arabia's Ceer aims its first EVs at the segment where PIF-controlled Lucid is shrinking

Ceer's September 21 launch gave buyers horsepower figures and a factory address. The most powerful versions of the Exobot promise more than 1,100 horsepower, chief executive James DeLuca said ^[10], and both models will be built at Ceer's plant in King Abdullah Economic City, north of Jeddah ^[2]. Ceer has yet to announce prices ^[11].

The swing toward BYD partly reflects price, said Hashim AlFatayerji, chief executive of the Saudi advisory firm Cararak ^[17]. He also warned against setting the two brands side by side. "BYD and Lucid serve very different segments, so comparing their volumes directly can be misleading," he said ^[18].

Ceer's first cars go to the other end of the market. Both are high-powered premium EVs, in the segment where Lucid sells its Air sedan and Gravity SUV ^[9]. The top Exobot reaches at least 89% of the 1,234 horsepower in Lucid's fastest car, the Air Sapphire ^[2]. "That does put the initial products closer to Lucid's premium territory than to BYD's mass-market center of gravity," said Bill Russo, founder of the Shanghai consultancy Automobility ^[12]. On the launch evidence, Ceer's first customer is the buyer Lucid already courts ^[9][12]. Russo said the real test of the strategy comes when the range broadens ^[13], and Ceer has planned more models over the next five years ^[27].

Rest of World calls Ceer PIF's hedge against Lucid ^[6]. If so, it is a hedge that keeps the original position. PIF has put about $8 billion into Lucid ^[4], and Lucid is one of only five U.S. companies in the fund's latest quarterly holdings filing ^[19]. At a market value of about $1.6 billion ^[15], the fund's roughly 58% stake ^[5] is worth about $0.9 billion ^[1]. Russo described the two as separate projects. He said Ceer's mandate is different: creating a Saudi automotive original equipment manufacturer and, importantly, an indigenous industrial ecosystem ^[7].

The plants are sized for buyers outside the kingdom. Saudi Arabia has no official count of EV sales ^[26]. AlFatayerji estimates that 10,000 to 20,000 of the almost 1 million new vehicles Saudis buy each year are electric ^[21]. Joseph Salem of Arthur D. Little puts 2025 at 35,000 to 40,000 EVs, not counting plug-in hybrids ^[22]. Ceer's plant alone is designed for up to 240,000 vehicles a year, and Lucid runs a smaller one in the kingdom ^[23]. That capacity is six to 24 times the sales estimates ^[3]. "Combined, their full-capacity targets are roughly 10 times what the domestic market can plausibly absorb near-term," Salem said ^[24]. "So the majority of output, I'd say 80% plus, has to be export-oriented almost by design," he said ^[25]. Spread evenly, the state's Lucid purchase deal comes to at most 10,000 cars a year, the size of AlFatayerji's low estimate for the whole EV market ^[4][21].

A two-by-two sorts this for anyone whose supplier's owner has just backed a rival. One axis is whether the owner is still putting money and orders into the incumbent. The other is whether the rival lands in the incumbent's segment. An owner that is selling out has decided, whatever it launches next; PIF had sold almost all of its roughly 5% Tesla stake by the end of 2019 ^[3]. A committed owner with a rival in another segment is running a portfolio. Lucid sits in the cell with a committed owner and an overlapping rival. The state remains a contracted Lucid customer ^[20], while Ceer's first cars sit in Lucid's segment ^[9].