Nearly a quarter of Korean newlywed couples now owe 300 million won or more

Compounded, the 2.3-fold rise since 2016 works out to about 11% a year ^[1]. The latest year added 5.0%, from 170.51 million won in 2023 ^[4][1], so the median is still climbing at roughly half its earlier pace. The distribution moved more than its midpoint did. The three brackets below 50 million won held 35.6% of couples in 2016 and 15.9% in the latest data, a drop of 19.7 points ^[3], against a gain of 18.7 points for couples owing 300 million won or more ^[2].

One detail in the breakdown is a puzzle. The median for homeowning couples rose from 112 million won in 2016 to 228.24 million won, a gain of about 104% ^[9][5], while the median for all indebted couples rose 130.1% ^[2]. A combined median can outrun one of its parts in two ways. Non-homeowners' debt could have grown faster than owners'. Sedaily's report lists jeonse deposits, the lump sums paid under Korea's deposit leases, among the causes of heavier borrowing ^[13]. Alternatively, more newlyweds could have joined the owning group, where the median balance is 86.64 million won higher ^[7].

The two readings carry different risks. Debt taken on with a house sits against an asset, and those assets have grown. Among Seoul newlyweds who own a home, the share whose property has an official assessed value above 600 million won rose to 31.4% in 2024 from 5.9% in 2015 ^[10]. The series itself counts balances, including sole proprietors' business loans ^[3]. A leverage reading needs income or asset figures alongside it. The largest balances belong to couples with a second income or a house ^[11][7].

The pressure point is interest. The Bank of Korea raised its policy rate in July and again in August, to 3.0% ^[14]. At a rate equal to August's COFIX, the cost-of-funds index for new loans, the median 179 million won balance costs about 5.69 million won a year and a 300 million won balance about 9.54 million won ^[4]. The report does not say how much of this debt floats with policy rates.

Further rate rises would reach the 300 million won tier first, and a third of homeowning couples sit in it, against 16.7% of those without a home ^[8]. Rising home values would keep owners' assets ahead of their loans. A continued slowdown from the 5.0% pace ^[1] would stop the tail from widening. I think the evidence supports a narrower claim than a household leverage crisis: a fatter tail of large loans, concentrated among homeowners and dual earners ^[8][11]. Sedaily's report makes the counter-case, that newlyweds have had relatively less time to build income and assets, so further rises in interest costs could squeeze their repayment capacity ^[13].

A fall in home prices would prove that view wrong. Sedaily attributes the doubling of owners' median debt to rising home values and bigger purchase loans ^[9]. A price decline would leave those loans in place while the assets behind them shrank.