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Meta plans to fund a free Muse agent with a cut of purchases paid through Stripe, Shop Pay and PayPal

Mark Zuckerberg said Meta will fund a mostly free Muse from a small fee on its purchases, after a rise of over $200 billion in Meta's value since launch. The one public revenue estimate for Muse works out to $30 a month per paying user, a figure sized like its subscription plans.

The Investor · Invest desk

Photograph accompanying Meta plans to fund a free Muse agent with a cut of purchases paid through Stripe, Shop Pay and PayPal
Photo: cryptopolitan.com

What happened

  • At Connect in Menlo Park on Wednesday, Mark Zuckerberg said Meta will take a small fee on the purchases, bookings and other transactions its Muse agent completes.
  • Muse launched on September 8 with a free basic tier and paid plans at $20 and $100 a month for heavier use.
  • Walmart, Best Buy, Sephora, Gap, Wayfair, Ulta Beauty and others are joining Muse as shopping connectors, alongside work tools such as GitHub and Notion.
  • Cryptopolitan reports Meta's market value has grown by more than $200 billion since Muse's release, which followed 2.8 million downloads in 12 days.
  • After Meta opened its connector platform to outside developers, more than 1,500 applications arrived in under a week, according to Alexandr Wang.

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Why it matters

  • constraint With payment running through Stripe's Link, Shop Pay and PayPal, Meta's fee has to come out of each order's margin, so Meta is contesting that slice with merchants or shoppers while the processors keep their place in the flow.
  • cost Meta is giving away a huge number of tokens now and expects fee income only over time, so it carries the compute bill for free users before any fee revenue arrives.
  • contradiction Zuckerberg says transaction fees will pay for the free tier, while the only revenue estimate on record is built on the share of users who pay, leaving the fee line unmodelled in public.

"A small fee from transactions" is the whole commercial term so far. Meta did not disclose the rate, or whether merchants or shoppers would pay it [1]. Zuckerberg set out the order of events himself: "We're standing behind this by making Muse free for a huge number of tokens, with the expectation that over time we will profit by taking a small fee from transactions," he said [2].

On payments, Meta is working with the intermediaries. Muse accesses the full product catalog on Shopify and pays through Stripe's Link and Shop Pay, with PayPal also supported [6]. Meta adds its cut to orders that those three checkouts process, so it is competing for a slice of each order's margin. Who gives up that slice depends on who pays. If merchants pay, the retailers now joining as connectors [5] are paying something close to a referral commission. If shoppers pay, the fee sits awkwardly beside Zuckerberg's claim that the agent will make money for its users [4]. A fee small enough that neither side notices leaves subscriptions carrying the business.

The only public revenue number fits that last case. One Wall Street estimate, reported by Cryptopolitan, puts Muse revenue at about $10.8 billion a year [9]. It assumes a billion users by the end of 2027, with at least 3% paying [9]. Three percent of a billion is 30 million payers [1]. Spread $10.8 billion across them and each pays $360 a year, or $30 a month [2], a price between the two paid plans [3]. To me that looks like a subscription estimate, with the transaction fee small or left out. Meta's gain in market value since launch, as Cryptopolitan reported it [8], is about 18.5 times that end-2027 revenue scenario [3].

Fee income depends on what Muse is used for. A cut of a Sephora basket is easy to define. A cut of a bill that got smaller is harder to charge, and the wins Meta's chief AI officer Alexandr Wang cited were savings: lower insurance costs, recovered refunds and a cable bill cut by $85 a month [7], or $1,020 a year [4].

I think Muse is, for now, a subscription business with a checkout option attached. I would be wrong if transaction fees turn out larger than subscription revenue once Meta reports Muse's numbers. The counter-case is the developer queue Wang described [10], because every commerce connector adds orders a fee can be taken on. "I think this could be a generational opportunity to start building for a new platform as it takes off," Wang said [13].

What to watch

  • Meta's first disclosure of the fee rate and whether merchants or shoppers pay it.
  • Expedia, listed as coming soon, would bring travel bookings, one of the transaction types Zuckerberg named, into the fee base.
  • Muse on Meta's AI glasses, where it is meant to buy a product the wearer is looking at, would put a purchase flow on Meta's own hardware.
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