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Invest1 publisher3 min readPublished

Transition relief now covers two of 45Z's five production years

The IRS published 45Z's 2026 emissions rate table this week and, in Notice 2026-53, a safe harbor for 2025 fuel. The Energy Department is still building the manure updates to the model that sizes each credit.

The Investor · Invest desk

Illustration accompanying Transition relief now covers two of 45Z's five production years

What happened

  • The IRS published the 2026 emissions rate table for the Section 45Z clean fuel credit and additional guidance covering manure-derived fuels and regenerative agricultural practices.
  • Notice 2026-53, issued September 8, supplies the technical modeling language for the tax law's mandated updates for manure-derived fuels and how producers apply those changes to the rate table.
  • The revamped statute excludes indirect land use change from emissions rates, restricts feedstock to the United States, Mexico and Canada, and bars negative rates except for fuel from animal manure.
  • The credit covers fuel produced domestically after December 31, 2024 and sold by December 31, 2029, and claimants must hold a Form 637 registration at the time of production.

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Why it matters

  • decision Producers with 2025 fuel in the tank now pick between filing on the safe harbor and holding out for the final regulations and an updated model that could rate the same gallon differently.
  • exposure Only a producer registered on Form 637 at the moment of production has a credit to size, however precise the emissions modeling later becomes.
  • constraint Feedstock origin and the indirect land use exclusion are decided before any model runs; modeling detail cannot rescue a gallon made from feedstock grown outside North America.
  • contradiction Bisignano's statement promises greater certainty for rural investment, while the same guidance says the DOE is still developing the model updates and the regulations remain under final consideration.

A model the producer does not control decides the size of a 45Z credit. The amount turns on the fuel's lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions rate, and lower rates pay more [2]. That rate comes out of the Energy Department's 45ZCF-GREET model, which the revamped credit requires to be updated [3]. The IRS says DOE is developing those updates [5].

So the operative content of Notice 2026-53 is the relief. It sets a safe harbor available for 2025 clean fuel production [6]. It also sets transition rules for applying the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's changes where an allowed methodology has not yet been updated, used cooking oil among them [7]. Transition relief also reaches fuel produced in 2026 from certain requirements [8]. For agricultural feedstocks, the guidance would let taxpayers account for qualifying low-carbon practices consistent with USDA technical guidelines and the 45Z-specific Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator [22].

The credit reaches fuel produced domestically after December 31, 2024 and sold by December 31, 2029 [9], which is five production years, 2025 through 2029 [1]. Relief covers two of them, so 40 percent of the production years the statute allows will be computed on interim methods [2].

Manure is the exception Congress wrote in. The law prohibits negative emissions rates for everything except transportation fuel derived from animal manure [13], and requires distinct rates for specific manure feedstocks [14]. DOE has yet to publish those separate rates, and because lower rates pay larger credits, that feedstock carries the biggest per-unit credits available under the statute [3].

Frank Bisignano, the IRS CEO, said the guidance "helps unlock billions of dollars for America's agricultural producers, provides greater certainty for investment across rural America, strengthens domestic biofuel production, and helps lower fuel costs for American consumers" [19]. His claim of certainty is the case against reading this file as unfinished. A method the IRS has said it will accept is something a lender can underwrite while the model behind it is provisional. Producers of ethanol, renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel and renewable natural gas [21] now choose on 2025 filings between the safe harbor and waiting for the February proposed regulations. Those regulations have been under final consideration at the IRS and Treasury for roughly seven months [15][4].

Two requirements hold regardless of the model. Feedstock must be grown or produced in the United States, Mexico or Canada [12], and emissions attributable to indirect land use change are excluded from the rate [11]. Registration is the third pass-fail test: a claimant must have held a Form 637 registration at the time of production [10].

What would show this reading wrong is a fast finish. If DOE ships the manure updates to 45ZCF-GREET and Treasury finalizes the regulations before returns are filed, 2026 fuel gets priced on final numbers and the transition rules become a footnote. The USDA finalized its regenerative-practice rules in June, and the IRS took about three months to say how they enter the model [17][4][5].

What to watch

  • Whether DOE publishes the manure-derived-fuel updates to 45ZCF-GREET, and whether the distinct feedstock rates differ enough to move project economics.
  • Whether Treasury and the IRS finalize the February proposed regulations before 2026 returns are filed, or leave producers on the interim methods.
  • Whether the safe harbor and transition relief are extended past 2026 fuel, which would signal the model updates are running late.
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