The phrase to underline in IDC's forecast is "a permanently higher cost structure," which is what it says vendors are now adapting their portfolios around [7]. Nobody re-specifies a product line for a shortage they expect to clear, and IDC's horizon for memory increases runs to 2028 at the earliest [6].
Divide the value forecast by the price forecast and the volume falls out: roughly 1.06 billion units this year against about 1.27 billion last year [1][2], which is some 212 million units taken out of the market in twelve months [3]. Close to a seventh of last year's volume sat under $100 [5], and that tier is where most of the subtraction happens. IDC says the low-end Android vendors serving it were already working on thin margins and are cutting models rather than repricing them [10].
The shelf has absorbed only a slice of the component increase so far, which is why IDC says selling prices will keep rising well into 2027 [15]. What is holding the top of the market together is credit rather than appetite: IDC attributes premium resilience to long-term interest-free financing being more common in developed markets such as the US and UK [13], while emerging markets are set to fall by more than 20% this year [14]. In IDC's words, consumers are starting to pay the AI bill, because the components that make AI possible are the same ones in short supply [16].
That last point is the reason this is not a handset story. The constrained parts are DRAM and NAND [5], so any line item with memory in its bill of materials inherits the same curve, on the same stated timeline [6].
Who is insulated is already visible in the platform split. iOS shipments fall just 1.3% and its share reaches a record 23.6% [17]; HarmonyOS nearly triples to 51 million units on what IDC calls disciplined pricing [18]. IDC's own read is that the winners will be the vendors with scale and supply leverage [19]. The one category still growing is foldables, up 12.6% to 22.9 million units this year and 18% in 2027 [20], with Apple's entry forecast at an average price above $2,550 [21] - about 4.4 times the market average [7]. Growth has relocated to the price points where a tripled memory bill is a rounding item. Most buyers of devices cannot follow it there.
